USD/INR likely to rise modestly between May and June FOMC meeting, says Scotiabank

The USD/INR currency pair is expected to modestly rise between May and June’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, particularly if the Federal Reserve releases a "hawkish hold" decision next Thursday morning.

USD/INR broke below the 64.16 support level on Wednesday, along with local share indices gaining through key resistance. The INR’s strength was attributable to a market-friendly French election outcome and the steady geopolitical situation on the Korean Peninsula as well as the nation’s robust fundamentals.

In addition, it played catch-up gains in the MYR and TWD as foreign investors had pulled out funds from Indian equity markets after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly raised its reverse repo rate on April 6.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) elections with 181 out of 270 seats, retaining control of Delhi’s three municipal corporations partly due to PM Modi’s popularity. It had won 138 seats in the last election. The AAP and the Congress got 48 and 30 seats respectively.

"The dollar is likely to advance modestly versus EM Asian currencies including the INR between May and June FOMC meeting, particularly if the Fed releases a "hawkish hold" decision next Thursday morning (HKT). The high-yielding INR will likely advance post the Fed’s June gathering as long as external uncertainty fades or dissipates," Scotiabank commented in its latest research report.