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USD-SGD seen at 1.44 for mid-year

The prospective Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) policy decision comes against a rather unusual backdrop. 

The SGD is trading persistently below the estimate of the lower (-2%) limit for the currency against the NEER basket. 
A reweighting of the NEER basket by the MAS may be partly responsible for this (giving a higher weighting to the euro) but the MAS may also now adopt a more tactical approach to FX intervention, rather than defending a specific SGD level.

Standard Chartered notes.... 

  • In any case, this week's USD-SGD retreat is likely to be short-lived, and amid the monetary policy divergence we forecast USD-SGD at 1.44 for mid-year.

  • Corporates should use USD-SGD pull-backs to boost hedge ratios on forward USD payables.

  • Market Data
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