USD/TRY likely to stabilize at around 4.00 by late-2018, says Commerzbank

The USD/TRY currency pair is expected to stabilize at around 4.00 level by the end of this year, according to the latest research report from Commerzbank. The lira appeared to stabilize yesterday as the USD retreated ahead of the FoMC

The lira basket (half USD, half EUR) regained nearly a percent compared to its low of Monday. Nevertheless, this occurred against a background of worse geo-political newsflow: both the US and EU governments escalated their hawkish tones against Turkey's military capture of Afrin in Syria, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel calling the humanitarian situation there 'unacceptable' and the Pentagon warning that rival forces would be sucked into that area now.

"Given that the lira moved in the opposite direction, we could conveniently conclude that this Syria stuff does not matter. But just imagine what we would be saying now had the lira weakened by 1% yesterday for whatever reasons – we would very likely be attributing that entire move to the same military developments," the report added.

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