FxWirePro: Dollar seems edgy on bets between hawks and doves of FOMC – Attain distrustful short dollar position via options triangle

Mar 20, 2018 09:37 am UTC| Research & Analysis Central Banks Insights & Views

The drivers of the dollars expected medium-term grind weaker in the refreshed forecasts are largely the same ones as we originally outlined in our recent post although the trade-weighted dollar Index has gone up by 0.2%...

Fundamentals to watch out for this week

Mar 19, 2018 10:36 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

In terms of volatility risks, this week is relatively heavy compared to the last one. What to watch for over the coming days: Central Banks: U.S. Federal Reserve will announce interest rate decision on...

FxWirePro: What-if scenario and OTC analysis and reverse collar strategy to optimize EUR/USD hedging

Mar 19, 2018 10:35 am UTC| Research & Analysis Central Banks

What-if below driving forces materialize? a scenario analysis: 1) Eventual repatriation by US corporates-EUR accounts for a third of foreign profits. 2) EUR appreciation delays ECB policy normalization (change in QE...

FxWirePro: AUD/USD medium term perspectives and a run through on put ratio back spreads

Mar 19, 2018 07:26 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views Central Banks

AUDUSD near-term momentum appears to be negative, targeting the 0.7650-0.7700 area if the USD rebound persists. While the medium-term perspective remains slightly pricey compared to short-term fair value projections, as...

Fed Hike aftermath Series: Hike probabilities over next 12 months

Mar 19, 2018 07:06 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

FOMC increased interest rates again in December for the third time in 2017 and projected three more hikes in 2018. However, debates among policymakers are growing over hikes as inflation remains low. Charles Evans joined...

FxWirePro: The Day Ahead- 19th March 2018

Mar 19, 2018 04:34 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Not many economic data and events scheduled for today, and all with low to medium volatility risks associated. Data and events so far: United Kingdom: Right move house price index up 1.5 percent according to March...

FxWirePro: Spotlight on EMFX space and trade baskets ahead of FOMC

Mar 16, 2018 12:10 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Central Banks Insights & Views

The short-term repricing of Fed hikes is typically not supportive of EM FX returns, which also motivates our selective hedges (e.g. TRY and MXN). The recent research in the past emphasized the distinction between increases...