Fed Hike Aftermath Series

Market odds of Fed hikes are falling fast

Feb 04, 2016 02:17 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The markets have always reckoned the Fed would hike fewer times than officials themselves thought but its the swing more than the gap that now catches the eye. Markets priced in close to 3 hikes in 2016 (after the initial...

Indonesia likely to cut interest rate around mid year

Feb 03, 2016 22:49 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Indonesian real GDP expanded by an estimated 4.8% y/y in 2015. The main key drivers behind the lower growth were prolonged delays in government spending, sluggish private investment and the impact of weak global markets....

Surprisingly strong unemployment data reduces the chance of RBNZ cutting rates in March

Feb 03, 2016 16:06 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

New Zealand unemployment rate plummeted to 5.3% in the December quarter, in stark contrast to expectations for a small increase. Employment growth was up a solid 0.9% while there was also a sharp fall in...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Will Emerging Markets benefit from a cautious Fed?

Feb 03, 2016 15:15 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks Economy

The Fed is likely to tighten monetary policy only by as much as markets allow without major turmoil. The FOMC statement showed that the Fed takes the financial market turmoil and the development in China and other emerging...

China Crisis Series

Renminbi Series

China’s foreign reserve data likely catalyst for next CNY move

Feb 03, 2016 15:05 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Chinas foreign reserve data to be released on Chinese New Year Eve is likely to be the catalyst for the next CNY move. If there is another big drop in the reserves, the market could speculate more depreciation in Chinese...

Wheeler's comments to support NZD in the short-term

Feb 03, 2016 14:55 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

NZD saw handsome gains overnight, and this despite continued risk aversion! Decent Q4 labour market data which recorded a surprise fall of the unemployment rate from 6.0% to 5.3% was one of the reasons. But the main reason...

BOJ easing rate side effects – retail traders deprive of JGBs

Feb 03, 2016 12:04 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Bank of Japans (BOJ) newly introduced negative rate has sparked some consequences in Japanese government bond (JGB) issuance. Ministry of Finance, Japan, announced today that due to falling yields, from February 5th, it...