Currency War Series

Banxico to deliver two more pre-emptive hikes

Dec 21, 2015 00:23 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Last week Banxico increased the Fondeo rate 25bp as a pre-emptive hike to protect the MXN. With inflation running at historical lows and no demand pressures on sight, Banxico is expected to deliver two more pre-emptive...

Currency War Series

SEK, NOK: Regional divergence intact for 2016

Dec 20, 2015 22:33 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Both the Riksbank and Norges Bank left policy unchanged last week. In the near term, EURNOK is expected to trade hand-in-hand with oil prices but think a correction lower is more likely than a break higher into year-end as...

Fed Hike Aftermath Series

Fed did its deed, now watch out inflation

Dec 20, 2015 21:50 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The USD is expected to continue to be supported versus G3, while it could underperform relative to emerging market currencies. With the uncertainty regarding the first hike of the Fed behind us, risk premia should decrease...

Currency War Series

BoJ surprise and focus for the year-end

Dec 20, 2015 21:19 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided on surprise measures to qualitatively supplement its QQE without further quantitative easing last week. Governor Kuroda at the post-meeting press conference described the decision as a...

Japan government tax revenue estimated at 25-year high in FY2016 - sources

Dec 20, 2015 11:41 am UTC| Central Banks

Japans government is set to estimate tax revenue at a 25-year high of 57.6 trillion yen ($475.25 billion) in fiscal 2016 due to rising corporate revenue, according to Reuters sources. The draft budget for the next fiscal...

Oil in Global Economy Series

Declining oil prices could push for another rate cut by ECB in 2016

Dec 19, 2015 08:40 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Brent prices dropped to $35 per barrel, which constitutes a significant downside risk to the ECBs inflation scenario and is likely to refuel talks of further monetary accommodation through, in particular, another cut in...

Why the Fed didn't let HY market problems prevent a hike

Dec 19, 2015 07:59 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

One of the reasons offered as reason for the Federal Reserve not to hike was the High yield market developments,but it did anyway. It made the right decision in our view. Scotiabank offers several reasons: Much of...