75% probability of Fed's rate hike in March 2016

The Fed is likely to deem its communication at the October meeting a success if markets stay broadly unchanged following the release. Whether it will succeed in this is up to the exact wording in the statement. 

"Currently, markets attach a 36% probability of a December rate hike and a 75% probability of a March rate hike. This is fair as the current mix of economic data does not send convincing signals about the economic outlook", says Danske Bank. 

A more downbeat description of the labour market could push the pricing of fed rate hikes in a slightly more dovish direction but the move is likely to be fairly muted, particularly if the FOMC changes its tone on global risks in a less worried direction.