A February hike still likely from BoE

August has on the face of it been unkind to the call for a February BoE rate hike. The BoE could give a more dovish feel to Thursday's BoE policy meeting minutes. There is no need for the BoE to sound hawkish right now. Indeed, they show that they are data dependent.

"That is about tactics though, about bigger downside risks and fewer near-term pressures. A rate hike is still expected next February. The BoE will probably highlight that a modest downgrade of world growth will shift UK growth prospects only a little, even if the potential downside risks have risen and warrant additional caution", says Bank of America. 

Sterling's slide could boost prospective price pressures, though for the BoE that probably just partially offsets what would otherwise be downside news from world price pressures. Fundamentally, unemployment has fallen close to pre-crisis levels, wage growth has picked up and the UK's real Achilles heel, productivity, now seems less of an issue. 

"In short, the UK recovery is more firmly grounded than it was a few years ago, which drives, in particular, Mark Carney's more hawkish tone recently. Given the wobbles, Ian McCafferty is likely to remain the lone voice voting rate hikes for at least a couple more months. But that does not pose a problem for our February call and does not suggest the BoE will have to delay hikes until next August, which is the current market view", added Bank of America.