A Glittering Peak: Gold Climbs High Amid Conflict and Election Jitters

Gold hits fresh all-time on the escalation of  Middle East tension and US elections uncertainties. It hit an all-time high of $2734 at the time of writing and is currently trading around $2734.

Geopolitical tensions, slow economic expansion in major areas, a change in central bank strategies towards reducing interest rates, and, more recently, the unpredictability surrounding the U.S. presidential election have all played a role."

US election uncertainty

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election nears, there is no distinct leading candidate, especially in the contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Key observations on the electoral situation include:

Narrow Competition: Recent polling shows a fiercely competitive atmosphere, with both candidates nearly evenly matched in various crucial states. While Harris holds a slight advantage in some surveys, the differences are frequently within the margin of error, indicating that either candidate has a chance to win.

US dollar index-

The US dollar index showed a minor decline due to profit booking.  A break above 104 would confirm a continuation of the bullish trend.

Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in November has risen to 90.2%, up from 83.60% just a week ago.

Technical (4 hour chart)-

The yellow metal trades above short-term (34 and 55 EMA ) and long-term (200- and 365 Hull MA) in the 4-hour chart.

The near–term support is around $2685, a break below targets $2670/$2660/$2638. Major bearish continuation only below $2470.The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2739 and a breach above will take it to the next level of  $2750/$27775.

Indicator (4- hour chart)

CCI (50)- Bullish

Average directional movement Index - Bullish

It is good to buy on dips around $2700 with SL around $2670 for TP of $2759