ANZ World Commodity Price Index lifts 0.3 pct m/m in August following two months of weaker prices

The ANZ’s World Commodity Price Index lifted 0.3 percent m/m in August following two months of weaker prices. Dairy and forestry sectors lifted in August but this was largely offset by weaker prices for meat and aluminium.

The index has gained 0.9 percent in the past year. In local currency terms the index lifted 3.9 percent m/m, bolstered by the 2.1 percent fall I the New Zealand dollar Trade Weighted Index during August.

Shipping costs were firmer in August despite concerns of slowing global trade as the trade war between China and the United States escalates. The Baltic Dry Index lifted 27 percent during August to reach its highest level in almost nine years.

The supply of ships is reducing as owners dock ships to make alterations to meet the tighter environmental regulations that will be imposed next year. Dairy prices gained 1.3 percent in August, reversing the weakness seen the previous month.

Milk powder prices firmed but butter prices softened. Dairy prices are currently bumping along but are yet to show the upward trend that slowing global growth in milk supply suggests is due. However, aluminium prices fell 3.1 percent in August after gaining 2.4 percent in July. The price of this metal has been bouncing along for some time.

Recent tightening of production in China pushed up the aluminium price within that market but prices elsewhere remain subdued as concerns grow about weakening global economic conditions.

"We are forecasting further downward currency movement in the coming months, supporting returns to New Zealand producers," ANZ Research further commented in the report.