AUD/USD likely to rise towards 0.72 again coupled with more optimistic picture in China, says Commerzbank

The AUD/USD currency pair is expected to be able to rise towards 0.72 again, coupled with a more optimistic picture in China, according to the latest research report from Commerzbank.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its monetary policy unchanged today. That not only applies for its key rate but also its neutral outlook. The RBA continues to stress the downside risks for the global growth environment which is likely to be a determining factor why AUD traded weaker following the decision.

However, the RBA seems to consider the risks for Australia to be balanced. Growth in Q4 was anything but amazing at +0.2 percent q/q but the labour market continues to flourish and the underlying inflation pressure is likely to remain stable.

Of course the RBA will only be able to breathe a sigh of relief once the improved outlook for the Chinese economy is also reflected in hard data and once China and the US reach a trade agreement, the report added.

"However, there is another reason for cautious optimism, which might explain the RBA’s restraint: today the Australian government is going to present its budget for the current year. In view of the elections in May additional supportive measures for the economy are expected. That is likely to dampen the downside risks for the Australian economic outlook," Commerzbank further commented in the report.