All eyes on the FOMC minutes

Fed officials say the decision to not raise rates was a "close call" last month - the minutes should reflect this sentiment. Yellen was adamant that among the things that stayed the Fed's hand in September were the recent decline in oil prices, continued rally in USD, and the general softening in EM growth. 

So when it comes to expectations for the first hike, the focus should remain on developments in these three areas since the meeting. The minutes may offer some vague "goal posts" in these areas, but it should not be lost that these minutes are a bit stale at a time when more contemporaneous developments will dictate near-term policy. 

"Note trade-weighted USD is only 0.8% off the cycle high registered on Sept 23 but we also think its impact on the US is often overstated", notes RBC Capital Markets.