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Market Roundup
• US Initial Jobless Claims 203K, 208K forecast, 207K previous
• US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jul) 0.7%, 0.7% forecast, -0.5% previous
• US Goods Trade Balance (Jul) -118.80B, -100.80B forecast, -101.41B previous
• US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,778K, 1,790K forecast, 1,796K previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 205.50K, 204.25K previous
• US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Jul) 1.3%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
• Canada Current Account (Q2) 8.8B, 3.5B forecast, -8.3B previous
• Canada Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (Jun) 3.40%, 3.33% previous
• US KC Fed Composite Index (Aug)10, 9 previous
• US KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug) 17, 17 previous
• US 4-Week Bill Auction 3.650%,3.640% previous
• US 8-Week Bill Auction 3.670%, 3.655% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Thursday as attention moved towards a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium.Warsh is scheduled to speak at the gathering of central bankers on Friday, where investors will watch for clues on how policymakers plan to navigate a landscape in which higher Treasury yields could do some of the tightening work for them.Data from the Labor Department that showed weekly initial jobless claims fell for a second straight week to a seasonally adjusted 203,000, below the 208,000 estimate of economists polled by Reuters.A separate report from the Census Bureau showed the U.S. goods trade deficit widened to $118.8 billion in July from $101.4 billion in June, marking the largest goods trade gap since March 2025. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1680(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1734(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1656(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1585(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling initially dipped but recovered some ground against the dollar as investor attention turns to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole address on Friday. In a closely watched speech on Friday at the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to address whether current inflation remains a concern and how policymakers should respond. Investors see the speech as an early test of his approach as markets grow increasingly cautious about his policy plans.Meanwhile, the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits for the first time fell for a second week, while the overall number slid to the lowest in a month, signaling a stable labor market. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3685(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3716(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3624(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards1.3531(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar clawed back some of this week's declines against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as oil prices rose and after data showed Canada posted its first current account surplus in four years.Canada's current account balance swung to a surplus of C$8.84 billion ($6.37 billion) in the second quarter from a first-quarter deficit of C$8.31 billion, led by strong gains in goods exports, including energy products.Economists had forecast a deficit of C$2 billion, while they expect second-quarter GDP data on Friday to show the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 3.4%The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, rose as Washington confirmed it was not in talks with Tehran despite diplomatic efforts by other countries. U.S. crude oil futures were up 0.5% at $82.62. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3883(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3911(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3739(23.6%fib ), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3700(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher against the yen on Thursday as markets now focused on remarks from Warsh at the annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming on Friday.Investors hoping the Fed chair will use his debut speech to explain his roadmap for returning inflation to the Fed's target and what he sees as the bond market's role in that strategy.Data on Wednesday showed the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which the Fed uses to set its target, increased 3.7% in the 12 months through July, unchanged from June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a PCE reading of 3.6%.While expectations of a September U.S. rate hike have gone down to just 34%, there's still a 74% chance of a hike by December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.21(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.60(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 156.16 (Daily low).
Equities Recap
European shares suffered their worst session in a month, with French blue-chip stocks falling to a one-month low amid growing concerns over fiscal and political uncertainty ahead of the first presidential debate before next year’s election.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.79percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.31 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 1.68 percent.
The technology-heavy Nasdaq outperformed other major U.S. stock indexes at Thursday’s close after Nvidia’s upbeat revenue forecast reinforced confidence in the strength of the artificial intelligence boom, driving gains across technology stocks.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.20 % percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.72% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.57% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Thursday as markets awaited Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday for clues on the central bank's inflation outlook and monetary policy path.
Spot gold was up 0.4% at $4,607.90 per ounce by 1:54 p.m. EDT (1754 GMT), after settling 1.4% lower on Wednesday in its biggest one-day decline in a week. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 0.2% higher at $4,664.
Brent crude prices settled 2.1% higher on Thursday, ending a three-session losing streak, after a Wall Street Journal report said U.S. President Donald Trump was unwilling to return to the terms of a memorandum of understanding reached with Iran in June.
Brent crude futures finished up $1.86, or 2.1% at $89.70 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled up $1.30, or 1.6% at $83.53.
