Market Roundup
• US House Price Index (YoY) (Jul) 4.5%, 5.3% previous
• US House Price Index (Jul) 425.2, 424.7 previous
• US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (Jul) 0.3%, 0.5% previous
• US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Jul) 0.0%, 0.6% previous
• US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Jul) 5.9%, 6.5% previous
• Belgium NBB Business Climate (Sep) -13.3, -12.6 previous
• US CB Consumer Confidence (Sep) 98.7, 105.6 previous
• US Richmond Manufacturing Index (Sep): -21, -19 previous
• US Richmond Manufacturing Shipments (Sep) -18, -15 previous
• US Richmond Services Index (Sep) -1, -11 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•23:50 Japan Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) (YoY) 2.6% forecast, 2.8% previous
•01:30 Australia RBA Chart Pack Release
•01:30 Australia Weighted mean CPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.70% forecast, 3.50% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro climbed against the dollar on Tuesday as dollar dipped after report showed U.S. consumer confidence dropped the most in three years in September. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 98.7 this month, down from an upwardly revised 105.6 in August, marking the largest decline since August 2021. Economists polled had expected the index to rise to 104.0, up from the previously reported 103.3 The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.46% to 100.47, with the euro up 0.48% at $1.1165. Immediate resistance is noted at 1.1198 (23.6%fib), with a breakout potentially pushing the pair towards 1.1218 (Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is at 1.1111 (38.2%fib), a drop below this level could lead the pair towards 1.1049(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound reached its highest level against the dollar in two-and-a-half years on Tuesday, following U.S. data that indicated a decline in consumer confidence and amid expectations that the Bank of England will reduce interest rates at a slower pace than the Federal Reserve, while China's central bank announced its largest stimulus package since the pandemic to support the economy.The BoE last week kept rates unchanged and said it would be cautious about future rate cuts. Markets expect just 40 bps more of cuts by December, which would leave the base rate closer to 4.50%. Sterling rose by as much as 0.38% to a high of $1.33985, its strongest since March 2022. It was last up 0.27% on the day at $1.3384Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3368(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3394(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3334(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3284(38.2%fib% ).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened to nearly a four-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as China's economic stimulus measures offset dovish guidance by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem on the prospects for further interest rate cuts . China is a major importer of some of the commodities that Canada produces, such as oil.The price of oil rose on China's stimulus and concerns that conflict in the Middle East could hit regional supply while another hurricane threatened supply in the U.S. The loonie was trading 0.7% higher at 1.3450 to the U.S. dollar, or 74.35 U.S. cents, after touching its strongest level since Aug. 28 at 1.3447. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3490 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3549 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3424(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3400(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar remained close to nine-month highs on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates steady at 4.35% for the seventh consecutive meeting, reiterating a hawkish stance. Sentiment was further boosted by new stimulus measures from China's central bank, which cut reserve requirements and lending rates, including those for existing home loans. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its cash rate at 4.35% for a seventh consecutive meeting and repeated policy would need to stay restrictive to ensure inflation slowed. The Australian dollar strengthened 0.67% versus the greenback to $0.6884. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6882(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6911(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6815(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6759(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against the yen on Tuesday as disappointing confidence numbers and a lower-than-expected business conditions index increased the likelihood of another substantial rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the November policy meeting. U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in September. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 this month from an upwardly revised 105.6 in August. The decline was the largest since August 2021. Economists polled had forecast the index rising to 104.0. The Richmond Fed indexfell to a 52-month low of -21 from a prior low of -19 in August and a low before that of -17 in July. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.73 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.00 (psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 141.70(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 140.36(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares closed higher on Tuesday, led by companies exposed to China, including luxury brands and automakers, following the central bank's announcement of broad stimulus measures to support its struggling economy.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.28 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.80 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1.28 percent.
The S&P 500 and Dow closed at record highs on Tuesday, overlooking weak consumer confidence data as mining stocks soared in response to China's announcement of a comprehensive stimulus package.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.20% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.25 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.08% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose 1% and hit a record high on Tuesday, building on its recent rally as Middle East tensions fed its safe-haven appeal, while investors latched on to fresh cues for more U.S. interest rate cuts.
Spot gold was up 1% at $2,654.39 per ounce by 1802 GMT after earlier hitting a record of $2,655.30. U.S. gold futures settled 0.9% higher at $2,677.
Oil prices climbed about 2% to a three-week high on Tuesday on news of monetary stimulus from China, the world's top crude importer, and amid concerns that growing conflict in the Middle East could hit regional supply.
Brent futures rose $1.27, or 1.7%, to settle at $75.17 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.19, or 1.7%, to settle at $71.56.
