Market Roundup
•US Jul Philly Fed Business Conditions 38.7,13.8 previous
•US Jul Philly Fed Employment 15.2, -2.5 previous
•US Jul Philly Fed Prices Paid 19.80,22.50 previous
•US Jul Philly Fed New Orders 20.7, -2.2 previous
•US Jul Philly Fed CAPEX Index 7.40,12.10 previous
•US Jul Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 13.9,2.7 forecast,1.3 previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 243K,229K forecast,222K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,867K,1,860K forecast,1,852K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 234.75K,233.50K previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•23:30 Japan Jun National Core CPI (YoY) 2.7% forecast, 2.5% previous
•23:30 Japan Jun National CPI (YoY) 2.8% previous
•23:30 Japan Jun National CPI (MoM )0.5% previous
•03:00 New Zealand Credit Card Spending (YoY) 0.0% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
EUR/USD: The euro fell on Thursday after the European Central Bank kept rates steady, as was widely expected. There were a few hints to support investor bets on another reduction in September, however, including ECB President Christine Lagarde's comment that risks to growth were tilted to the downside - a change to her previous formulation that they were balanced, at least in the near-term.Lagarde said growth was likely to have slowed in the second quarter and that investment activity along with poor industrial output point to muted expansion ahead.The comments reinforce expectations that weak activity will continue to suppress price pressures in the economy, allowing the ECB to cut rates further, perhaps once a quarter. The euro was down 0.37% at $1.0897, a day after hitting a four-month high of $1.0947. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0942(23.6%fib).), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0893(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0868(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped on Thursday after British data showed wages grew at a slower pace, but was still strong enough to keep doubts about an upcoming rate cut from the Bank of England afloat. Official UK data showed average weekly earnings excluding bonuses - a key gauge of inflation pressure for the BoE - grew by 5.7% in the three months to the end of May compared with a year earlier, in line with median forecasts. Sterling was last 0.1% lower at $1.2995, having traded at a session high of $1.30125 right before the wage growth numbers. Futures markets are attaching a 40% chance of a quarter-point cut to 5.0% when the BoE meets on Aug. 1, down from 50% at the start of the week and from 60% at the start of July. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3048(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3081(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2924(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2844(50%fib).
USD/CAD :The Canadian dollar weakened to a more-than two-week low against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as the greenback notched broad-based gains and ahead of domestic retail sales data that could guide expectations for Bank of Canada interest rate cuts.Data on Tuesday showed Canada's annual rate of inflation slowing to 2.7% in June from 2.9% in May. Investors see an 85% chance the BoC would cut its benchmark rate at a policy decision on July 24, swaps market data shows. U.S. crude oil futures were little changed at $82.88 a barrel but copper HGc1 was down 3%, hitting a three-month low. Canada is a major producer of commodities, including copper and oil. The loonie was trading 0.2% lower at 1.3715 to the U.S. dollar , its weakest level since July 2. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3735 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3755 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3686 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3669(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against Japanese on Thursday after stronger-than-expected data on the U.S. labor market and manufacturing.A gauge of manufacturing activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region expanded more than expected in July, boosted by a surge in new orders. Weekly initial jobless claims jumped by 20,000 to 243,000, above the 230,000 estimate of economists polled , although it is not considered to be a notable shift in the labor market due to seasonal factors.Against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.7% to 157.26, rebounding from a drop in the prior session that sparked speculation of intervention by the Bank of Japan. Strong resistance can be seen at 157.43(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.66(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.94 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 155.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares ended lower on Thursday as a continued selloff in chip stocks offset gains from positive corporate updates. Meanwhile, investors assessed the European Central Bank's decision to keep lending rates steady.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.28 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.44 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0. 12 percent.
U.S. stocks tumbled on Thursday, reversing early gains as investors shifted away from high-priced megacap growth stocks amid the accelerating second-quarter earnings season.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.59 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 1.39 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 2.76 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices steadied on Thursday as mixed signals on crude demand and U.S. economic slowdown concerns were countered by growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Brent futures settled at $85.11 a barrel, rising 3 cents, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 3 cents to settle at $82.82 a barrel. Both benchmarks were up in the previous trading session.
Gold prices eased on Thursday but remained near record highs reached in the previous session, as expectations for a September interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve gained momentum.
Spot gold fell 0.3% to $2,451.21 per ounce as of 1844 GMT. It hit an all-time high of $2,483.60 on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures settled 0.1% lower at $2,456.4.
