Market Roundup
•US Jun CPI Index, n.s.a. 314.18, 314.63 forecast, 314.07 previous.
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 233.50K, 238.50K previous.
•US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,852K, 1,860K forecast, 1,858K previous.
•US Initial Jobless Claims: 222K, 236K forecast, 238K previous.
•US Jun Real Earnings (MoM) 0.3%, 0.4% previous.
•US Jun CPI Index, s.a 313.05, 313.23 previous.
•US Jun Core CPI Index 318.35, 318.78 forecast, 318.14 previous.
•US Jun Core CPI (MoM) •US Jun 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•US Jun CPI (YoY) 3.0%, 3.1% forecast, 3.3% previous.
•US Jun CPI (MoM) -0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous.
•US Jun Core CPI (YoY) 3.3%, 3.4% forecast, 3.4% previous.
•US Jun CPI, n.s.a. (MoM) 0.03%, 0.17% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•01:00 Australia MI Inflation Expectations 4.4% previous
•02:00 China June Trade Balance 85.00B forecast , 82.62B previous.
•02:00 China June Imports (YoY) 2.8% forecast , 1.8% previous.
•02:00 China June Exports 11.20M. previous.
•02:00 China Imports 5.20M. previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro rose higher against dollar on Thursday lower-than-expected U.S. inflation figures bolstered expectations for a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in September. The consumer price index slid 0.1% last month after being unchanged in May, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Thursday. It was the weakest monthly reading since May 2020, early in the pandemic, while the 3% year-over-year rise was the lowest reading in a year.Over the past three months consumer prices have risen at just a 1% annual rate. Traders reacted swiftly to Thursday's data, pricing in about a 90% chance of a September rate cut, up from about 70% earlier, and moving forward bets on a second rate cut to November, with about even odds of a third rate cut by year's end. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0873(23.6%fib).), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0882 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0818 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0783 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling hit a four-month high on Thursday as comments from Bank of England policymakers and better-than-forecast GDP data led traders to reduce bets on an August rate cut in Britain, while they awaited crucial U.S. inflation data.The pound advanced 0.25% to $1.2881, its strongest level since early March, after BoE chief economist Huw Pill said on Wednesday price pressure remained persistent and Thursday data showed British economic output increased by 0.4% in May, above expectations. Main scheduled event of the day - and arguably the week - for currency markets is U.S. inflation data due at 1230 GMT, which will reinforce or challenge market expectations that the Federal Reserve is more likely than not to cut rates in September. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2947(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2875(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2820(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data raised hopes the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates in September.U.S. consumer prices surprisingly fell 0.1% in June, boosting the market's expectations for a rate cut in September to a 90.8% chance from 68.5%. On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted in congressional testimony that inflation was coming down and the economy was no longer overheated.Investors will now focus on the U.S. producer price index (PPI) data on Friday, alongside the beginning of the earnings season. The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at C$1.3627 to the greenback, after trading in a range of 1.358 to 1.364.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3635 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3652 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3612(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.35977(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar slipped against yen on Thursday after data showed headline consumer prices unexpectedly fell in June, with the Japanese yen at one point gaining more than 2% as traders priced in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September. The sharp gain in the yen increased speculation that Japanese authorities may have intervened to shore up the currency, which fell to a 38-year low against the greenback last week. Analysts said that while an intervention is possible, the move was likely related to repositioning, with many traders being caught on the wrong side of the market . Thursday's data showed the consumer price index dipped 0.1% last month after being unchanged in May, and posted an annual gain of 3%, the smallest in a year.Core prices rose 0.1% in June, for an annual gain of 3.3%.Strong resistance can be seen at 158.87(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.12(23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.86 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 156.86(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares extended gains on Thursday as more upbeat earning updates and softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data rolled in, strengthening the case for a September rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.20 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.76 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1. 38 percent.
The Nasdaq ended sharply lower on Thursday, hit by losses in Nvidia, Apple and Tesla as investors rotated into smaller companies after softer-than-expected inflation data fed bets the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September..
Dow Jones closed up by 0.08 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 0.88 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 1.92 percent.
Commodities Recap
Spot gold , added 1.82% to $2,414.27 an ounce. U.S. gold futures gained 1.77% to $2,414.10 an ounce as the precious metal was bolstered by the prospect of rate cuts.
U.S. crude settled up 0.6%, or 52 cents at $82.62 a barrel and Brent rose to $85.40 per barrel, up 0.4%, or 32 cents.
