Market Roundup
•Swiss Jul Unemployment Rate n.s.a 2.3%,2.3% previous
•Swiss Jul Unemployment Rate s.a. 2.5%,2.5% forecast,2.4% previous
•German Jun Factory Orders (MoM) 3.9%,0.4% forecast-1.6% previous
•Swiss Jun Retail Sales (YoY) -2.2%,0.5% forecast,0.4% previous
•French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q2)0.0%,0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•UK Jul Construction PMI 55.3,52.5 forecast,52.2 previous
•EU Jun Retail Sales (YoY) -0.3%, 0.1% forecast,0.3% previous
•EU Jun Retail Sales (MoM) -0.3%,0.0% forecast,0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Jun Trade Balance -2.00B forecast,-1.93B previous
•12:30 US Jun Imports 336.70B previous
•12:30 US Jun Exports 261.70B previous
•12:30 US Jun Trade Balance -72.50B forecast,-75.10B previous
•12:30 Canada Jun Exports 62.45B previous
•12:30 Canada Jun Imports 64.37B previous
•14:10 US Aug IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 45.0 forecast,44.2 previous
•14:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3)2.5% forecast,2.5% previous
•15:00 GlobalDairyTrade Price Index 0.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Tuesday as investor nerves appeared to be soothed after Federal Reserve policymakers pushed back against fears of a recession. Fed San Francisco President Mary Daly said she was "more confident" U.S. inflation is headed toward the Fed's 2% goal.
However, traders were wary of making big bets as they were still reassessing the impact of the pullback and were waiting for a fresh catalyst to see the bullish appetite take hold. With a light data week in Europe, investors will focus on more commentary from Europe Central bank and Fed officials later in the week to gauge the mood of both central banks. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0977(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0903(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0839(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound resumed its decline against the dollar on Tuesday, falling to a five-week low, and steadied on the euro as markets calmed down after the previous day's sharp swings.Sterling was last down 0.6% against the dollar at $1.2699, its lowest since July 3. It has fallen around 2.6% from its mid-July peak a fraction above $1.30, as traders trimmed their long positions into the Bank of England's rate cut last week .Markets have increased their expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts substantially and now see over 100 basis points of easing across the Federal Reserve's three meetings this year. That compares with less than 50 bps of further cuts expected from the Bank of England. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2728(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2762(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2691(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2638(23.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar rebounded against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as greenback strengthened after data showed US service sector rebounds in July .U.S. services sector activity rebounded from a four-year low in July amid a bounce back in new orders and the first increase in employment in six months, which could help to quash fears of a recession that have been sparked by a surge in the unemployment rate last month and an ongoing stock market sell-off.The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that its nonmanufacturing purchasing managers (PMI) index increased to 51.4 last month from 48.8 in June, which was the lowest level since May 2020. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8575(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8650(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8467 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8400(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Tuesday as some of the most striking moves of recent days reversed somewhat, and a hint of calm returned to markets. The yen's recent gains were driven by an uptick in volatility causing investors to bail out of once popular carry trades, reinforced by the Bank of Japan raising interest rates on Friday. The dollar was last at 144.75 yen, up 0.3% on the day, the first day it has traded higher on the Japanese currency this month, but still down 10 yen in the past week. Strong resistance can be seen at 146.67(38.2 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.78 (50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.70(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 140.90 (Daily low).
Equities Recap
European shares inched higher on Tuesday after hitting six-month lows in the previous session, resonating with a recovery across global markets and buoyed in part by corporate earnings updates.
At (GMT 12:46 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 2.94 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 3.20 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 2.69 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices inched up on Tuesday and analysts noted that the non-yielding metal's outlook remains positive as latest commentary from Federal Reserve officials and data point towards bigger U.S. interest rate cuts.
Spot gold rose 0.3% at $2,413.90 per ounce by 1134 GMT. Bullion fell as much as 3% in the previous session, caught in a global sell-off driven by fears of a U.S. recession.U.S. gold futures gained 0.5% to $2,455.30.
Oil prices pared gains in volatile trade on Tuesday as fears of an escalation in the Middle East conflict and a drop in production at Libya's largest oilfield raised the prospect of tight supplies.
Brent crude futures were down 9 cents, or 0.12%, to $76.21 a barrel at 1135 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 8 cents, or 0.11%, to $72.86.
