Market Roundup
•German Jul Current Assessment 87.1,88.5 forecast,88.3 previous
•German Jul Ifo Business Climate Index 86.9,88.9 forecast,88.6 previous
•German Jul German Business Expectations 87.0,89.0 forecast,89.0 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 0.4% previous
•12:30 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.0% previous
•12:30 US Goods Trade Balance -100.62B previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 234.75K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,860K forecast,1,867K previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 237K forecast,243K previous
•12:30 Canada May Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) 3.69% previous
•12:30 US Jun Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) -0.2% previous
•12:30 US Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) 0.2% forecast,-0.6% previous
•12:30 US Jun Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.1% previous
•12:30 US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) 2.6% forecast,3.1% previous
•12:30 US Core PCE Prices (Q2) 2.70% forecast,3.70% previous
•12:30 US GDP Sales (Q2) 1.8% previous
•12:30 US Real Consumer Spending (Q2)1.5% previous
•12:30 US PCE Prices (Q2) 3.4% previous
•12:30 US GDP (QoQ) (Q2)2.0% forecast,1.4% previous
•12:30 US Jun Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 0.2% forecast,-0.1% previous
•15:00 US Jul KC Fed Composite Index -8 previous
•15:00 US Jul KC Fed Manufacturing Index -11 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Thursday as investors focus turned to U.S. economic data that could offer clues on Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts timing. The markets are awaiting U.S. gross domestic product data, due at 1230 GMT, and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data on Friday to calibrate their expectations of the timing of rate cuts.Markets see a 100% chance of a rate cut by the Fed in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Non-yielding bullion's appeal tends to shine in a low-interest rate environment. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0865(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0909 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0825(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0790(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound fell slightly on Thursday but largely stayed above the fray that rocked other currencies, as investors increased their wagers on Bank of England rate cuts in 2024. Traders on Thursday increased their bets on BoE rate cuts ahead of next week's decision, pricing in derivatives markets showed.Two interest rate reductions now fully priced in by December, while next Thursday's decision remains on a knife edge. British bond yields fell, weighing on the pound.The shift was largely driven by a change in U.S. interest rate expectations after a string of cool economic data and comments from former Federal Reserve officials backing a cut. Sterling was last down 0.12% at $1.2891, slipping further away from a one-year high of $1.3044 hit last week. It fell more against the euro, which was up 0.26% against the pound at 84.22 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2953(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3020(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2861(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2824(61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar edged lower against the Swiss franc on Thursday as market participants evaluated the timing and frequency of potential U.S. interest rate cuts and awaited U.S. economic data for further clarity on monetary policy. The Fed will cut rates just twice this year, in September and December, as resilient U.S. consumer demand warrants a cautious approach despite easing inflation .The U.S. GDP data on Thursday and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index data on Friday could help investors calibrate their expectations of when rate cuts might begin. Investors are also closely watching developments in the U.S. election campaign, as Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to be the Democratic Party's candidate to face Republican Donald Trump. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8886(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8938(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8779(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8700(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against Japanese on Thursday as yen attracted buying interest ahead of a central bank meeting next week. The Bank of Japan is likely to debate whether to raise interest rates when it meets next week and unveil a plan to roughly halve bond purchases in coming years, sources said, signalling its resolve to steadily unwind its massive monetary stimulus. The rate decision will depend on how long the board members prefer to wait for clarity on whether consumption will recover and keep inflation stably around the bank's 2% target, said four people familiar with the BOJ's thinking. Over three-quarters of economists polled expect the central bank to stand pat this month and possibly next move in September or October, but sources suggested the outcome of the July 30-31 meeting was considerably less certain. The Japanese yen strengthened 1.06% against the greenback at 153.97 per dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 153.52(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.18(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.93 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 151.56 (23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares stumbled on Thursday, weighed down by a string of disappointing corporate earnings, while a global tech stock rout sent jittery investors scrambling for safer havens.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last down by 0.74 percent, Germany's Dax was last down by 1.22 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 2.04 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold slid 1% on Thursday, falling to its lowest level in two-weeks, as investors squared positions to focus on U.S. economic data that could offer additional insights into the timing of the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts.
Spot gold fell 1% to $2,374.84 per ounce by 1016 GMT, having touched its lowest since July 10. U.S. gold futures dropped 1.7% to $2,374.20.
Oil prices fell on Thursday on mixed demand signals a day after large draws on U.S. inventories while consumption in China, the world's largest crude importer, remains lacklustre.
Brent crude futures for September fell 74 cents, or 0.9%, to $80.97 a barrel by 0855 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for September slid 74 cents, or 1%, to $76.85.
