Market Roundup
• US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun): 53.9, 55.7 forecast, 55.1 previous.
•US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun): 53.3, 53.8 forecast, 54.0 previous.
•US ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jun): 49.7, 48.6 previous.
•US Construction Spending (MoM) (May): 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jun): 73.0, 77.7 forecast, 82.1 previous.
•US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Jun): 56.0, 56.8 previous.
•US Crude Oil Inventories: -3.775M, -2.900M forecast, -6.088M previous.
•US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: 0.709M, -1.077M previous.
•US EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (WoW): 0.5%, -0.6% previous.
•US Gasoline Inventories: -2.333M, -0.950M forecast, 2.064M previous.
•US Crude Oil Imports: 0.370M, 0.094M previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•02:30 Australia Trade Balance (May) 2.190B forecast, 1.791B previous.
•02:30 Australia Exports (MoM) (May) 7.2% previous.
•02:30 Australia Imports (MoM) (May) 0.8% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday after Eurozone inflation came in softer than expected, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank may adopt a less aggressive stance at its upcoming policy meeting.Annual inflation eased to 2.8% in June, below the 3.0% market forecast, reducing the urgency for another ECB interest rate hike on July 23.Although June inflation remained above the ECB's 2% target, easing oil prices on hopes of a peace deal have boosted expectations that inflationary pressures will continue to moderate, limiting the broader impact of the recent energy price surge.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1450(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1510(SMA20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1343(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1283(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound initially dipped but recovered ground against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as traders digested speeches from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Wednesday that the central bank is not yet in a position to consider cutting interest rates, despite oil prices retreating to near pre-Iran war levels.Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated that the BoE can afford to be patient on interest rate decisions, saying policymakers have time to assess how the recent spike in oil prices now easing—filters through the UK economy.Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed on Wednesday that the U.S. central bank remains firmly committed to its 2% inflation target, saying he would disappoint anyone expecting a shift toward easier monetary policy despite President Donald Trump's calls for interest rate cuts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3279(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3316(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3151(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3122(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar firmed against the U.S. dollar as renewed strength in the US Dollar supported the piar.A temporary lull in the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran boosted the U.S. dollar by about 4% from its May low, while crude oil prices retreated to pre-war levels as geopolitical tensions eased.The U.S. dollar also remained supported by persistently elevated inflation, a resilient economy and higher Treasury yields, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance.On the geopolitical front, U.S. representatives Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff traveled to Qatar on Tuesday to meet with mediators as efforts continued to implement an initial peace agreement aimed at ending the conflict with Iran.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4241(23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4306(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4179(June 30 low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4100 (38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar steadied against yen on Wednesday as strong buying interest kept the pair well supported. Market participants appear to be placing less weight on repeated warnings from Japanese authorities about potential currency intervention. The absence of any immediate action from Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF) has encouraged traders to push the pair closer to the psychologically important 163.00 level, with intervention threats increasingly failing to deter bullish momentum. Japanese authorities may wait until after the release of key U.S. employment data before deciding whether to step into the market, allowing them to assess the impact of the figures on U.S. interest rate expectations. Immediate resistance can be seen at 162.87(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 163.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 161.81(July30th low) a break below could take the pair towards 161.31(SMA 20).
Equities Recap
Equities Recap
European shares edged lower on Wednesday after ending the second quarter strongly, as investors weighed signals that U.S. interest rates could remain higher for longer and monitored progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.18 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.18 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.79 percent.
U.S. stocks finished slightly lower on Wednesday as technology shares fell, but gains in Meta Platforms limited the decline in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.02% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.21 % percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.66 % percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed more than 2% on Wednesday after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh indicating that inflation risks have moderated.
Spot gold rose 1.6% to $4,071.04 per ounce by 1:20 p.m. ET (1720 GMT) after hitting its lowest level since November in the previous session. The yellow metal logged a quarterly loss on Tuesday.
Oil prices fell more than 1% on Wednesday to their lowest level since March, as optimism over U.S.-Iran peace talks eased supply concerns after President Donald Trump said negotiations in Qatar had progressed
Brent futures settled down $1.38, or 1.89%, to $71.57 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude lost 92 cents, or 1.32%, at $68.58 a barrel. Both benchmarks closed at their lowest levels in four months.
