An upbeat employment report could keep alive expectations of June Fed hike

March non-farm payrolls will be the key release this week (Fri), and the ADP employment report on Wednesday will be watched for clues. Although the monthly correlation is not especially high, another 200k+ outturn for ADP would almost certainly fuel expectations of a similar-sized gain in Friday’s report.

The dovish comments from Janet Yellen on Tuesday put the US dollar back on the defensive. Yellen noted that a cautious approach to tightening was ‘especially warranted’. Bond yields extended their earlier drop, with the 10-yr US treasury closing 6bp lower at 1.82%.

While Yellen’s comments have seemingly put paid to an April move, the US dollar’s decline could be limited if Friday’s payroll report surprises on the upside and a June rate rise remains on the cards.

"We expect the Easter effect to have a negative impact on the headline employment figure. We see the pace of hiring slowing to 180k from 242k in February, a flat unemployment rate at 4.9% and a trend-consistent 0.2% m/m gain in average hourly earnings," said BNP Paribas in a report.