BOJ Minutes Signal More Rate Hikes as Inflation Risks Grow 
Japan PM Sanae Takaichi Unveils Growth Plan as BOJ Independence Concerns Lift Bond Yields 
Japan Economy Minister Downplays Inflation Risks Despite BOJ Warning 
Australia Inflation Cools as Core CPI Misses Forecasts, Easing RBA Rate Hike Pressure 
Chile Central Bank Holds Interest Rate at 4.5% as Inflation and Global Risks Persist 
China Holds Loan Prime Rates Steady for 14th Month as Economic Recovery Remains Uneven 
RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% as Inflation Risks and Global Uncertainty Persist 
March non-farm payrolls will be the key release this week (Fri), and the ADP employment report on Wednesday will be watched for clues. Although the monthly correlation is not especially high, another 200k+ outturn for ADP would almost certainly fuel expectations of a similar-sized gain in Friday’s report.
The dovish comments from Janet Yellen on Tuesday put the US dollar back on the defensive. Yellen noted that a cautious approach to tightening was ‘especially warranted’. Bond yields extended their earlier drop, with the 10-yr US treasury closing 6bp lower at 1.82%.
While Yellen’s comments have seemingly put paid to an April move, the US dollar’s decline could be limited if Friday’s payroll report surprises on the upside and a June rate rise remains on the cards.
"We expect the Easter effect to have a negative impact on the headline employment figure. We see the pace of hiring slowing to 180k from 242k in February, a flat unemployment rate at 4.9% and a trend-consistent 0.2% m/m gain in average hourly earnings," said BNP Paribas in a report.
