Market Roundup
- US Mortgage Market Index w/e 415.4, 420.70-prev
- US MBA Purchase Index w/e 173, 169.80-prev
- US Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 1815.3, 1870.30-prev
- US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate w/e 4.01%, 3.96%-prev
- US Federal Budget, USD Feb f/c -187.0b, -18.0b-prev
- BR Foreign Exchange Flows w/e 3.019b, -1.142b-prev
- ECB's Nowotny wrong to think there is a CCY war going on now, nervous there may be too much success w/QE with market rates going increasingly negative, not sure ECB fully understands impact of neg rates
- IMF's Lagarde we clearly have a rebound in US economy, good growth in UK , & Euro area turning corner
- BOE's Weale lower oil price gives BOE breathing space to keep rates on hold, signs of wage growth in coming months would strengthen case to raise rates
- Sweden's Floden says Sweden will continue to have as expansive mon policy as possible w/o damaging markets
- Whether China further loosens monetary policy this year will depend "very much" on inflation, China likely to widen Yuan trading band if capital flows are modest or mild (CB advisor)
- Mexico's Videgaray says Mexico currency commission to closely watch peso
- Mexico's Aportela says has not seen contamination of inflation from peso
- Banxico to offer USD 52m via auction/o a min price until June 8, will maintain daily offer to auction USD 200m
- Chile CB poll sees no rate change in near-term, inflation in 12 mos at 3.2%
- Brazil's Comptroller general opens case against 10more Petrobras contractors
- Turkish Econ minister says expressing different views should not cast a shadow on CB independence
- (1745 ET/ 2145 GMT) NewZealand Food Price Index Feb (previous 1.30%)
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Foreign Bond Investment w/e (previous 70.9b)
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Foreign Invest JP Stock w/e (previous 350.5b)
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Business Survey Index Q1 (previous 8.10)
- (0100 ET/ 0500 GMT) Japan Consumer Confid. Index Feb (previous 39.10)
- (2030 ET/ 0030 GMT) Australia Employment Feb (consensus 15.0k, previous -12.2k)
- (2030 ET/ 0030 GMT) Australia Full Time Employment Feb (previous -28.1k)
- (2030 ET/ 0030 GMT) Australia Participation Rate Feb (consensus 64.8%, previous 64.80%)
- (2030 ET/ 0030 GMT) Australia Unemployment Rate Feb (consensus 6.3%, previous 6.40%)
- (1600 ET/ 2000 GMT) NewZealand RBNZ Interest Rate N/A (consensus 3.5%, previous 3.50%)
FX Recap
GBP/USD: MPC's Weale said the pound could drop further due to the large UK's balance of payments deficit. GBP/USD plunged below the psychological support at 1.5000, to levels last seen in July 2013 near 1.4920. Currently the pair is down 0.96% at 1.4926. Support is seen at 1.4900 (psychological level) ahead of 1.4814 (2013 low Jul.9) and then 1.4803 (low 2010). On the flip side, a break above 1.5025 (low Mar.8) would expose 1.5077 (23.6% of 1.5554-1.4929) and finally 1.5108 (100-h MA).
EUR/USD: EUR/USD boosted by a weak euro and a stronger US dollar that resumed the upside across the board during the last hours, is headed toward the ninth daily decline. The pair broke below 1.0550 and dropped quickly to 1.0510 reaching a fresh 12-year lows. At the time of writing the pair was trading at 1.0544, around 140 pips below previous close. Support lie in the 1.0500 area and below here 1.0455. On the flip side resistance is at 1.0550, 1.0605 and 1.0620. Option expiries for Thursday March 12th: 1.1000 (827M)
AUD/USD: Structural issues in the global economy play havoc on the riskier plays, such as the Aussie. AUD/USD continues along the bearish theme, broke below the 0.7585 support area and stretched to its lowest level in nearly 6 years . AUD bears stampeding over the bulls, would be looking for below the two year down channel at 0.7528 and then in the medium term, 0.7183 comes as the 61.8% retracement of the move up 2001. The pair currently trades at 0.7576 with a high of 0.7646 and a low of 0.7559.
NZD/USD: NZD/USD is awaiting the RBNZ decision due at 2000 GMT today. The pair is heading towards Feb lows of 0.7176 lows and beyond could see test of March 2011 low at 0.7108. Currently the pair is trading at 0.7206 with a high of 0.7293 and a low of 0.7191. Option expiries for Thursday March 12th: 0.7140 (130M), 0.7300 (139M), 0.7500 (219M)
USD/CHF: USD/CHF extended gains above parity and printed a fresh 8-week high at 1.0107 rising more than 100 pips on the day. The US dollar gained momentum during the last few hours and rebonded to the upside across the board further boosting the pair. Currently the pair is trading at around 1.0100, up 1.02% on the day.
