Market Roundup
• German Factory Orders (MoM) (Dec): 7.8%, -1.8% forecast, 5.7% previous.
•French Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec): -0.7%, 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous.
•HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI (MoM) (Jan): 45.3, 47.4 previous.
•HCOB France Construction PMI (MoM) (Jan): 43.5, 43.4 previous.
•HCOB Germany Construction PMI (Jan): 44.7, 50.3 previous.
•HCOB Italy Construction PMI (MoM) (Jan): 47.7, 47.9 previous.
•Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec): -0.8%, -0.4% forecast, 0.5% previous.
•Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec): 0.9%, 1.3% previous.
•UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Jan): 46.4, 42.2 forecast, 40.1 previous.
•Eurozone Retail Sales YoY (Dec): 1.3%, 1.6% forecast, 2.4% previous.
•Eurozone Retail Sales MoM (Dec): -0.5%, -0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous.
•BoE Interest Rate Decision (Feb): 3.75%, 3.75% forecast, 3.75% previous.
•BoE MPC Vote Cut (Feb): 4, 2 forecast, 5 previous.
•BoE MPC Vote Unchanged (Feb): 5, 7 forecast, 4 previous.
•BoE MPC Vote Hike (Feb): 0, 0 forecast, 0 previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims: 212K forecast, 209K previous.
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,850K forecast, 1,827K previous.
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 206.25K previous.
•13:30 US JOLTS Job Openings (Dec): 7.200M forecast, 7.146M previous.
•13:30 US Natural Gas Storage: -379B forecast, -242B previous.
•16:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction: 3.630% previous.
•16:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction: 3.635% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•17:25 Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
Currency Forecast
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Thursday as investors awaited ECB rate decision . The European Central Bank is all but certain to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday and signal that no policy move is imminent, even if the euro's recent surge against the dollar fuels concerns that inflation might undershoot its target.The euro zone's central bank has been on hold since ending a year-long run of rate cuts in June, and a benign outlook for both growth and prices has taken nearly all pressure off policymakers to provide any further support. With inflation at the 2% target, growth steady at the currency bloc's potential and interest rates on a neutral setting, some have called the current period a central banker's nirvana or the ECB's "Goldilocks" moment. Thursday's meeting is the first since Bulgaria joined the bloc on January 1, taking the number of countries that share the euro currency to 21. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1908(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1978(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1786(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1762(SMA 20).
GBP/USD: Sterling weakened on Thursday after the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged in a closely split 5–4 vote, signaling that a rate cut could follow if inflation continues to ease as expected. The narrow margin surprised markets and highlighted growing divisions within the Monetary Policy Committee over the policy outlook.Governor Andrew Bailey was among the five members who supported keeping rates on hold but indicated his stance could shift if inflation, which is projected to fall to the Bank’s 2% target from April, shows signs of a sustained decline rather than a temporary dip.Prior to the decision, rate futures markets had assigned little probability to a March rate cut and only about a 60% chance of easing in April. The Bank’s cautious tone reinforced expectations that policy easing is approaching, weighing on the pound. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3676(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3728(Feb 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3547 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3419(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased on Thursday as greenback firmed as investors remained focused on U.S. monetary policy signals. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said she is more concerned about stalled progress on inflation than a weakening labour market, signaling she would be unlikely to support another interest-rate cut until tariff-related price pressures begin to ease.On the data front, Australia's surplus on goods trade widened in December as exports of iron ore and coal picked up while imports dipped, data showed on Thursday.The Australian Bureau of Statistics said Australia’s goods trade surplus rose to A$3.37 billion ($2.36 billion) in December, up from a revised A$2.6 billion in November, broadly in line with market expectations of around A$3.25 billion. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6748(Feb 3rd high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7084(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6941(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6835(SMA 20)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar firmed against the yen on Thursday as the Japanese currency slid for a fourth consecutive session ahead of Sunday’s general election. Polls suggest a clear win for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, backing her push for higher government spending, a stance that has unsettled markets worried about Japan’s fragile public finances.Takaichi called the snap election just three months into her term in a bold effort to secure voter backing for her agenda. She took office in October after inheriting a divided party and a minority government following Ishiba Shigeru’s exit after losing two parliamentary elections. Public confidence in the ruling LDP had been hit by rising living costs and a series of political funding scandals. Even so, despite her narrow path to leadership, Takaichi’s approval ratings have remained surprisingly strong at around 70% in her first three months.Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.89(Dec 18th high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.21(23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.37(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 154.36 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares edged lower on Thursday as investors weighed mixed corporate earnings from major firms including Shell and BNP Paribas.
At GMT (13:15) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.50 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.89 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.26 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Thursday, while silver plunged more than 11% as investors took profits following a two-day rally.
Spot gold declined 1.9% to $4,869.85 per ounce, as of 1156 GMT, after sliding more than 3% earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for April delivery dropped 1.2% to $4,891.30 per ounce.
Oil prices fell more than 2% on Thursday but held close to multi-month highs after the U.S. and Iran agreed to hold talks in Oman on Friday.
Brent crude futures were down $1.54, or 2.2%, at $67.92 per barrel at 1306 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down $1.52, or 2.3%, at $63.62.
