Market Roundup
- United States Mar housing starts number mm increase to 0.926 mln (fcast 1.040 mln) vs prev 0.897 mln
- United States Mar building permits: number decrease to 1.039 mln (fcast 1.080 mln) vs prev 1.102 mln
- United States w/e initial jobless claims increase to 294 k (fcast 280 k) vs prev 281 k
- United States Apr Philly Fed business indx increase to 7.5 (fcast 6.0 ) vs prev 5.0
- United States Apr Philly Fed employment increase to 11.5 vs prev 3.50
- United States Apr Philly Fed new orders decrease to 0.7 vs prev 3.90
- US housing starts, jobless claims miss forecasts and add to recent string of data disappointments
- But Philly Fed bucks the trend, coming in at 7.5 vs fcast 6.0, with a jump in employment growth to boot
- Slew of Fed speakers; Fischer, Mester, Lockhart, Rosengren keep focus on hike, mostly question of when
- Lockhart leans later than June, Rosengren: conditions not yet met; Fischer: USD one of many factors affecting US econ;
- Greek PM Tsipras confident of deal with creditors by end of April; says Europe will not choose path of unethical & brutal financial blackmail (RTRS)
- IMF says Lagarde & Varoufakis agreed on need to move forward swiftly on measures for Athens agreement with creditors
- EU's Moscovici forbids EC from thinking about a 'Plan B' on Greece
- US rates down again as Housing Starts, Permits miss big; Fed move by Sep now only 50/50; spring rebound, cheap energy dividend fails to arrive
- Eurodollar futures at contract highs; Fischer, Lockhart, Mester hawkish talk completely disconnected from bullish bond market action; stocks grind higher
- Dollar down as rate spreads start breaking against it; 2yr diffs vs EUR, AUD, CAD most notable
- Euro stocks off hard as EUR bid through 200 hma; Cable with another look at key 1.50 pivot; Greek bonds blown out on story requesting payment delay
- EM/commodity currencies up big as CRB highest in 2 months; oil at new highs YTD; Al Qaeda takes major Yemeni oil port
- ( 0100 ET/ 0500 GMT) Japan Consumer Confidence Index Mar (previous 40.7)
- No Significant Events
FX Recap
USD/JPY falls back to daily lows as the US dollar falls across the board. The yen is also weak in the market, so while USD/JPY is falling modestly, the rest of the currencies reach fresh highs versus the US dollar. USD/JPY currently is hovering around 118.86, near an important short term support located around 118.80 (April 6, 15, 16 lows). Breach of support could pave way for test of March lows that lie at 118.30. Option expiries Friday 17th April: 120.00 (1.8B), 121.20 (500M), 121.40 (401M)
USD/CAD: Selling pressure around the greenback growing towards the end of US session. USD/CAD dragged down to 3-month lows. Continues to fall, at fresh lows in the 1.2160/50 band. The pair will remain under pressure in light of the key inflation releases in the US and Canada on Friday. Currently the pair is trading at 1.2153 down 1.12% on the day. Supports likely at 1.2100, 1.2062 and then 1.1940. On the flipside, the initial hurdle lines up at 1.2350 (38.2% of 1.1565-1.2835) ahead of 1.2353 (low Feb.3). Option expiries Friday 17th April: 1.2300 (480M)
EUR/USD: The recovery in EUR/USD remains on track on Thursday. The pair pushes higher on Fedspeak, eyes on 1.08. EUR/USD is now up around 0.97% at 1.0782. Next immediate resistance is at 1.0800 followed by 1.0887 (high Apr.8) and then 1.0947 (high Apr.7). Supports lie at 1.0613 (100-h MA), 1.0571 (low ) and finally 1.0532 (low ). Option expiries Friday 17th April: 1.0400 (581M), 1.0450 (478M), 1.0600 (612M), 1.0800 (575M)
NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.7676 with a high of 0.7698 and a low of 0.7577. The pair marked a new high today at 0.7698 despite the disappointments in the Fonterra's dairy prices this week. The real driver of course is the weakness in the greenback and unwinding of US dollar long position. Option expiries Friday 17th April: 0.7580 (2.4B)
USD/MXN: Greenback is losing ground across the board including Latin American currencies. The Mexican peso is rising of the third day in a row. Peso climbed from 1-month lows to 6-day highs in 32 hours. USD/MXN is about to close around 15.150 today, the lowest since last Friday. The pair is back below 15.20, the level it closed last week and under the important technical level located at 15.250.
