Market Roundup
• French CPI (MoM) (Jan): -0.3%, -0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous.
•French HICP (MoM) (Jan): -0.3%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous.
•French CPI (YoY) (Jan): 0.3%, 0.6% forecast, 0.8% previous.
•French Government Budget Balance (Dec): -124.7B, -155.4B previous.
•French HICP (YoY) (Jan): 0.4%, 0.6% forecast, 0.7% previous.
•Spanish Unemployment Change (Jan): 30.4K, 13.4K forecast, -16.3K previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•15:00 US JOLTS Job Openings (Dec): 7.230M forecast, 7.146M previous.
•15:00 Mexico S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan): 46.10 previous.
•15:00 New Zealand GlobalDairyTrade Price Index: 1.5% previous.
•15:00 US Milk Auctions: 3,615.0 previous.
•15:10 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Feb): 47.9 forecast, 47.2 previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•14:40 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
•14:50 German Buba Balz Speaks
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases
• Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro traded steady on Tuesday as investors awaited the European Central Bank’s policy decision later this week. The ECB is due to announce its decision on Thursday, with markets widely expecting interest rates to remain unchanged. At its previous meeting, the central bank kept borrowing costs on hold for a fourth consecutive time, maintaining the Deposit Facility rate at 2%, the Main Refinancing Operations rate at 2.15%, and the Marginal Lending Facility rate at 2.4%. Policymakers reiterated their commitment to anchoring inflation at the 2% medium-term target and stressed that future rate moves will be decided on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1942(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2000(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1804 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1746(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound was little changed on Tuesday as a light economic calendar made for steady trading ahead of the Bank of England's interest rate decision on Thursday. Market participants expect the Bank of England to hold rates at 3.75% on Thursday before cutting borrowing costs once or twice later in the year.Britain's inflation rate rose more than expected to 3.4% in December, the highest in the Group of Seven most affluent nations, although the BoE expects it will drop to its 2% target by around the middle of the year.Recent data, including stronger-than-expected GDP figures for November and a bounce in retail sales in December and business activity in January, has helped push the pound higher this year against the dollar and euro. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3848(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3889(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3651(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3572(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar climbed on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered its first interest rate hike in two years. The central bank lifted its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% in a unanimous decision, pointing to stronger-than-expected economic growth and inflation pressures likely to stay elevated. With the move, the RBA joins the Bank of Japan as one of the few major developed-market central banks still tightening policy. In contrast, markets continue to price in possible rate cuts in the U.S., UK, and Canada, while the European Central Bank is expected to remain on an extended pause. The hike follows the RBA’s last rate cut in August, just six months ago. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7065(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7108(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6944(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6847 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Tuesday as upbeat economic data and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy offset concerns over another potential government shutdown. The greenback has strengthened in recent days following Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Fed chair, with markets viewing him as less inclined to push for rapid rate cuts. Adding to the momentum, U.S. manufacturing activity returned to expansion, with the ISM PMI rising to 52.6 in January, its highest level since August 2022. However, the closely watched January jobs report will be delayed due to the partial federal government shutdown. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.52(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.61(Dec 22nd high) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.54(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.28 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Europe’s benchmark index reached a record high on Tuesday as commodity market turmoil eased and investor attention shifted to earnings from companies such as Amundi and Publicis.
At (GMT 13:20),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.67 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.36 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.15 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold surged on Tuesday, on track for its biggest daily gain since November 2008, as investors rushed back into the metal after its steepest two-day sell-off in decades.
Spot gold jumped 5.3% to $4,913.59 an ounce by 1234 GMT, rebounding from Monday’s low of $4,403.24, while last week’s record high of $5,594.82 per ounce remains the historic peak for now.
U.S. gold futures for April delivery rose 6.1%to $4,936.20 per ounce.
Oil prices stabilized on Tuesday after sliding more than 4% in the previous session, as investors weighed the global supply outlook and the potential easing of U.S.-Iran tensions.
Brent crude futures gained 17 cents to $66.47 per barrel by 1217 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $62.38 a barrel, up 24 cents. Earlier in the session, Brent and WTI fell to $65.19 a barrel and $61.12 a barrel, respectively, both the lowest in a week.
