Market Roundup
- US Build Permits R Numbr MM Feb 1.102m, (previous 1.092m)
- US Build Permits R Chg MM Feb 4%, (previous 3.00%)
- US Mortgage Market Index w/e 437.1, (previous 399.3)
- US MBA Purchase Index w/e 178.7, (previous 170.4)
- US Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 1932.5, (previous 1720.3)
- US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate w/e 3.9%, (previous 3.99%)
- US Durable Goods Feb -1.4%, (consensus 0.4%, previous 2.00%)
- US Durables Ex-Transport Feb-0.4%, (consensus 0.3%, previous -0.70%)
- US Durables Ex-Defense MM Feb-1%, (previous 2.30%)
- US Nondefense Ex-Air Feb -1.4%, (consensus 0.3%, previous -0.10%)
- Brazil FGV Consumer Conf Mar 82.9, (previous 85.4)
- Brazil Bank Lending MM Feb 0.5%, (previous -0.20%)
- Brazil Foreign Exchange Flows w/e 0.762b, (previous 2.229b)
- Mexico IGAE Econ Activity YY Jan 2.04%, (consensus 1.9%, previous 3.15%)
- Mexico IGAE Econ Activity MM Jan 0.22%, (previous -0.34%)
- Fed's Evans says would rather see inflation at 2.5%than worry about credibility-loss like Japan suffered, only reason entertaining negative rates is events like QE, we could go lower but in the US we are in a different position
- Fed's Evans says strong dollar a challenge for some, but energy prices having beneficial effect for consumers & businesses
- BoE's Forbes says rates will need to rise despite current low inflation, if low inflation persists unexpectedly the BOE could cut interest rates
- BOE's Miles says can imagine raising rates even if inflation is significantly below target (FT)
- EU's Juncker was "very pessimistic" about Greece, now more positive
- ECB's Weidmann sees no sign of deflationary spiral in euro zone
- ECB's Weidmann says would be tragic if Greece gave up reform drive
- ECB raises emergency funding cap for Greek banks to above EUR 71 bln
- Germany sees no reason for Greece to get EUR 1.2 bln from EFSF
- Greece not legally entitled to EUR 1.2 bln linked to bank recap-EFSF
- Greek CB chief says Grexit is not an option, recent data suggests Greek economy has started to rebound, growth this year will be higher than 2014 will pick up further next year
- ECB's Praet outlook relatively positive for EZ econ in short-term, but structural LT view less positive, reform fatigue is one of the big risks the EZ is facing
- EU lawmakers to discuss accelerating capital markets union, objective is to achieve a single EU capital mkt by end of 2018
- Chile CB sees rate steady at 3% for six months, inflation at 3.3% in 12 mos
- Goldman trims U.S. Q1 GDP view to 1.8 pct from 2.0 pct
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Foreign Bond Investment w/e (previous 551.1b)
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Foreign Invest JP Stock w/e (previous 244.3b)
- No Significant Events
USD/JPY: USD/JPY dipped into the 119.29/11 support area, but stabilising there. The pair recovered ground during the American session and trimmed losses despite risk aversion. USD/JPY remains consolidated around the mid point of the 119 handle with little bias towards the upside currently. Currently USD/JPY is trading at 119.60 with a high of 119.83 and a low of 119.22. Option expiries for Thursday 26th March: 119.15 (221M), 119.50 (334M), 120.00 (1.3BLN)
GBP/USD: Greenback is soft on the durable goods miss. GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.4887 with a high of 1.4955 and a low of 1.4829. Key resistance remains at 1.5148 and 1.5358. On the downside, supports seen at 1.4813 (2013 low) and then the 1.4636 (current March low). Eventually pair could target 1.4291/29 area.
EUR/USD: Today's softer data from US Durable Goods Orders hit the dollar, intensifying the selling pressure after yesterday's gains. EUR/USD back to the area of 1.0960 after being once again rejected from the 1.10 region. The pair is currently trading at 1.0956, up 0.30% on the day. Resistance are located at 1.1029 (high ) ahead of 1.1062 (high ) and then 1.1115 (high Mar.5). While on the downside breakdown of 1.0891 (low ) would open the door to 1.0886 (21-d MA) and then 1.0768 (hourly low ). Option expiries for Thursday 26th March: 1.0850 (888M), 1.0900 (519M), 1.1025 (459M)
AUD/USD: AUD/USD reached a daily high at 0.7904 but failed to hold gains and dropped to 0.7827, reaching the lowest level since Monday. The pair continues to trade around 0.7850, consolidating after rallying from 0.7585 (Mar 18 low) to 0.7938 (Mar 24 high). Resistance levels are at 0.7905/10 (daily high), 0.7935/40 (Mar 24 high) and 0.8000. Support lie at 0.7800, 0.7760 (Mar 23 low) and 0.7735 (Feb 24 low, Mar 12 high). Option expiries for Thursday 26th March: 0.7895-0.7900 (1BLN), 0.7800 (450M), 0.7700 (631M)
USD/CHF: CHF dropped across the board and extended losses versus the euro and the pound. USD/CHF reached a fresh daily high during the American session at 0.9620. USD/CHF is stabilizing after sharp declines in the previous 3 trading days. the pair has lost almost 500 pips since the last week and continues to trade with a bearish bias in the short term. A break below 0.9540 could trigger further declines.
