- CFTC IMM CTA data - Specs cut USD longs to lowest since July '14.
- Foreigners buy long-term US assets in August but net capital outflow $9.2 bln, Japan net Tsy holdings $1.197 bln vs rev July $1.201 trln, China $1.271 trln vs $1.269 trln.
- BoJ Gov Kuroda - Economy continues to recover despite output-export slowdown, annual core CPI to hover around zero, BoJ ready to act if needed, to maintain QQE for as long as needed.
- Japan Fin Min Aso - Voices doubts on BoJ easing.
- China Prem Li - Achieving growth of around 7% not easy, calls for ongoing financial reforms.
- China Q3 GDP +1.8% q/q, +6.9% y/y, slowest growth since '09, +1.7%/+6.8% eyed, Q2 rev +1.8% q/q (+1.7%), Stats Bureau - downward pressure but growth remains in reasonable range.
- China Jan-Sept fixed asset investment +10.3% y/y, +10.8% eyed.
- China September industrial production +5.7% y/y, retail sales +10.9%, +6.0%/+10.8% eyed.
- NZ September PSI 59.3, highest since November '07, August 58.5.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US October NAHB housing market index, 62 eyed; last 62.
Key Events Ahead
- N/A BoJ Osaka, Nagoya heads to speak at BoJ branch managers meeting.
- N/A Riksbank executive board meeting, Norway NOK4 bln NST30 6-mo t-bill sale.
- N/A UK GBP3 bln 2% 2065 Gilt syndication sometime this week.
- N/A Netherlands E1-2 bln each 3/6-month DTC auctions.
- N/A France E3.4-3.8/1.4-1.8/1.6-2 bln 3/6-12-month BTF auctions.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Buba Nagel speech in Ingolstadt, Germany.
- (0700 ET/1100 GMT) Belgium E2.3-2.8 bln 4.25/0.8/3.75% 2022/25/45 OLO auctions.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) Joint Fed, OCC, FDIC meeting in Chicago.
- (1030 ET/1430 GMT) ECB Nouy European parliamentary testimony.
- (1100 ET/1500 GMT) ECB/Austria CB Nowotny speech in Vienna.
- (1200 ET/1600 GMT) Richmond Fed Lacker speech in Richmond.
FX Recap
EUR/USD: The pair failed to breach the $1.15 handle last week and dropped back below $1.14, and the trend is slightly bullish, although investors will likely wait for the outcome from the ECB meeting and if no changes are announced, the pair might accelerate higher. The macro-calendar remains absolutely data-dry in the session ahead with the German Buba monthly report to be published. While the North American session has a couple of Fed Speaks in store for the American traders, while the only 2nd tier data in the form of NAHB Housing Market Index will be reported. It made intraday high at 1.1378 and low at 1.1350 levels. Initial support is seen around at 1.1015 and resistance at 1.1560 levels.
USD/JPY: Pair found fresh bids near 119.10 region and saw a 40-pips knee-jerk rally on the release of forecasts beating Chinese GDP data for the Sept quarter. China's economy grew 6.9% in the September quarter, coming in slightly higher than the market forecast of a 6.8% expansion. The pair now eased-off highs and trades muted around 119.28 levels. Pair made intraday high at 119.60 and low at 119.13 levels. Initial resistance is seen at 123.20 and support is seen at 118.42 levels.
GBP/USD: The UK pound rose to the highest level in last week, as the country's labour market data pointed to the highest employment levels in 7 years and rising real income. At the start of a new week, pair is supported around $1.5450 levels. Today is data thin calendar for UK. Market will focus on US macro economic data for the further movement. Pair made intraday high at 1.5442 and low at 1.5427 levels. Initial support is seen at 1.5107 and resistance is seen around 1.5725 levels.
NZD/USD: After showing healthy gains for a number of weeks the kiwi dollar slipped on Monday during the Asian session, moving around the $0.68 handle after Chinese GDP data, and extending the losses from Friday. Pair is hovering around the $0.68 mark. China is New Zealand's biggest export destination for its goods and subsequently any doubts surrounding Chinese growth can impact the commodity linked kiwi. Pair made intraday high at 0.6812 and low at 0.6783 levels. Initial support is seen at 0.6235 and resistance at 0.6721 levels.
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rose sharply against its US counterpart on Monday after Chinese economic growth figures beat estimates, painting a slightly better picture of the outlook for Australia. China has for a long time been Australia's top export destination, and the slowdown in China has had a huge impact on the Australian economy, particularly in the resource sector where investment has declined sharply over the last two years. Pair made intraday high at 0.7289 levels and low around 0.7238 levels. Initial support is seen at 0.6908 and resistance at 0.7438 levels.
Equity Recap
Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index fell 0.47% to 18,206.35 points within the first hour of trade, while Tokyo's broader Topix gauge was down 0.47% at 1,497.70 points.
Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng index slipped 0.13% to 23,037.13 points at the opening bell, mainland China's benchmark Shanghai Composite grew 0.31% to 3,401.82 points, and Korea's benchmark Kospi index fell 0.20% to 2,026.19 points in Seoul.
The benchmark Australian S&P/ASX 200 index was down 0.24% at 5,256.00 points in Sydney, with miners weighing on the index.
New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index was flat at 5,819.59 points this afternoon in Wellington.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index closes down 0.05 pct at 5,265.70 points.
Tokyo's Nikkei average closes down 0.88 pct at 18,131.23.
Treasury Recap
China finance auctions 30 year bonds at 3.74 pct yield.
South Korea sells 10-year treasury bonds, dated June. 10, 2015, at average yield of 2.080 pct -finance ministry.
BOJ offers to lend y434.3 bln of JGBs on spot basis through 10/20 as a secondary source of JGBs.
Thailand 12.8 bln baht, 182-day Treasury bill average accepted yield 1.44387 pct. Thailand 15 bln baht, 28-day Treasury bill average accepted yield 1.40253 pct.
New Zealand government bonds edged up with yields 2.5 basis points lower at the long end of the curve.
Australian government bond futures had a firm tone, with the three-year bond contract up one tick at 98.230. The 10-year contract also added one tick to 97.3850, while the 20-year contract was up half a tick at 96.8450.
Commodity Recap
Gold extended loses to a third straight session on Monday, as strong data on U.S. consumer sentiment prompted investors to pare bets the Federal Reserve will wait until next year to raise interest rates. Spot gold fell 0.5 percent to $1,171.58 an ounce by 0346 GMT, while U.S. gold futures slid nearly 1 percent. Other precious metals also tracked gold lower.
Oil prices headed lower at the start of the new week, after booking huge weekly falls, as traders digest the latest Chinese data. Moreover, persisting supply glut worries and a stronger US dollar also weighed. Futures for WTI dropped 0.36% to trade at $47.09 per barrel, while Brent futures were traded 0.40% lower at $50.26 per barrel.
