Market Roundup
• Japan CPI (YoY) (Mar) 1.1%,0.8% previous
• Japan Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.4%, 2.2% forecast, 2.2% previous
• Japan Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.9%,2.8% previous.
• Japan CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) (Mar) 0.4%,0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•07:00 UK Business Investment (QoQ) (Q4) -3.2%forecast, 1.9% previous
•07:00 UK Business Investment (YoY) (Q4) -0.7% forecast, 4.4% previous
•07:00 UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) 0.4% forecast, 1.2% previous
•07:00 UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) -0.5% forecast, 2.1% previous
•07:00 UK Current Account (Q4) -16.7B forecast, -18.1B previous
•07:00 UK GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•07:00 UK GDP (YoY) (Q4) 1.4% forecast, 1.4% previous
•07:00 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) -0.3% forecast, 1.7% previous
•07:00 UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) 0.5% forecast, 1.0% previous
•07:00 UK Trade Balance (Jan) -16.80B forecast, -17.45B previous
•07:00 UK Trade Balance Non-EU (Jan) -6.10B previous
•07:45 French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Feb) 0.4% forecast, -0.5% previous
•07:45 French CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.4% forecast, 0.0% previous
•07:45 French French CPI (YoY) (Mar) 0.8% previous
•07:45 French French HICP (MoM) (Mar) 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
•07:45 French French HICP (YoY) (Mar) 1.1% forecast, 0.9% previous
•07:45 French PPI (YoY) (Feb) -2.10% previous
•07:45 French PPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.7% previous
•07:55 German Unemployment Change (Mar) 10K forecast, 5K previous
•07:55 German Unemployment Rate (Mar) 6.2% forecast, 6.2% previous
•07:55 German Unemployment (Mar) 2.886M previous
•07:55 German Unemployment n.s.a. (Mar) 2.989M previous
•09:00 Italian Business Confidence (Mar) 87.5 forecast, 87.0 previous
•09:00 Italian Consumer Confidence (Mar) 98.8 previous
•10:00 EU Business and Consumer Survey (Mar) 97.0 forecast, 96.3 previous
•10:00 EU Business Climate (Mar) -0.74 previous
•10:00 EU Consumer Confidence (Mar) -14.5 forecast, -14.5 previous
•10:00 EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (Mar) 21.1 previous
•10:00 EU Selling Price Expectations (Mar) 9.8 previous
•10:00 EU Services Sentiment (Mar) 6.7 forecast, 6.2 previous
•10:00 EU Industrial Sentiment (Mar) -10.5 forecast, -11.4 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against the dollar on Friday as renewed tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump fueled investor fears of a full-blown trade war.Trump moved ahead with a 25% tariff on auto imports due to kick in next week, drawing fierce criticism from politicians and industry executives across the globe and a warning from global car makers that price hikes were likely on the way. The focus is now on reciprocal tariffs the U.S. is due to announce on April 2. Trump indicated the measures may not be the like-for-like levies he has been pledging to impose. Looking ahead, France and Spain will publish preliminary inflation figures and the U.S. gets February figures for the Federal Reserve's preferred core PCE inflation gauge.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0840(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0958(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0741(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0650(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged lower on Friday as worries about U.S. President Donald Trump's auto sector tariffs and the threat of additional levies kept investors cautious. Trump moved ahead with a 25% tariff on auto imports due to kick in next week, drawing fierce criticism from politicians and industry executives across the globe and a warning from global car makers that price hikes were likely on the way. The widening of the global trade war that Trump kicked off upon regaining the White House has jolted the markets, with shares of global automakers hit particularly hard. The UK will publish its February retail sales report, with forecasts pointing to a 0.3% monthly drop. In January, retail sales had a strong performance, jumping 1.7%, far surpassing expectations and reaching the highest level since May 2024. Alongside this, the final GDP data for the fourth quarter will also be released. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3012(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3072(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2902(March 17th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2873(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Friday as traders reduced risk exposure ahead of the month-end and in anticipation of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy meeting. This risk aversion comes as market participants adjust their positions, bracing for potential policy updates or signals from the RBA. The RBA is set to announce its rate decision on Tuesday, with no change to the official cash rate (OCR) expected. Meanwhile, investors are closely watching the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index later on Friday, with a 0.3% month-on-month increase expected, as it is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. At GMT 06:05, The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.26% to $0.6288. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6313(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6358(March 20th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6258(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6237(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against the yen on Friday as yen gained strength following the release of Tokyo’s consumer price index.Core consumer inflation in Tokyo remained above the Bank of Japan’s target and accelerated in March, driven by steady increases in food prices, according to data released on Friday. The Tokyo consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food, rose by 2.4% year-on-year in March, surpassing the market forecast of 2.2% and up from a 2.2% rise in February. This keeps market expectations for a near-term interest rate hike alive. The yen was slightly stronger at 150.80 per dollar in early trading, on course for a nearly 4% gain against the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 151.12(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.52(Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.50.00(Psychological level) a break below could take the pair towards 149.81(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks dropped on Friday as fresh tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump heightened concerns among investors about the potential for a full-scale trade war.
Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 2.39% , South Korea's KOSPI was down 2.14%,Hang Seng was down by 1.20%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices reached a record high on Friday as concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's new tariff plans sparked fears of a global trade war, driving investors towards the safe-haven appeal of the metal.
Spot gold climbed 0.2% to $3,061.72 an ounce, as of 0035 GMT, after hitting a record high of $3,063.20 earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures firmed 0.4% to $3,073.10.
Oil prices slipped slightly but remained close to one-month highs on Friday, poised for a third consecutive weekly gain.
Brent crude futures were 0.07% lower at $73.98 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were 0.07% lower at $69.87.
