Market Roundup
•Japan CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Sep) -0.1%,0.2% previous
•Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) 2.9%,2.9% forecast ,2.7% previous
•Japan National CPI (YoY) (Sep) 2.9%, 2.7% previous
•Japan National CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.1%, 0.1%previous
•Japan Manufacturing & Services PMI (Oct) 50.90, 51.30 previous
•Japan au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 48.3, 48.8forecast,48.5 previous
•Japan au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Oct) 52.4, 53.3 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 06:00 UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) 0.7% forecast,1.2% previous
• 06:00 UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 0.8% previous
• 06:00 UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) 0.6% forecast, 0.7% previous
• 06:00 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) -0.2% forecast,0.5% previous
•06:45 French Consumer Confidence (Oct) 87 forecast,87 previous
•07:00 Spanish PPI (YoY) (Sep) -1.5% previous
•07:00 Spanish Unemployment Rate (Q3) 10.20% forecast,10.29% previous
•07:15 HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 48.2 forecast,48.2 previous
•07:15 HCOB France Composite PMI (Oct) 48.1 previous
•07:15 HCOB France Services PMI (Oct) forecast,48.7 forecast,48.5 previous
•07:30 HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Oct) 51.6 forecast,52.0 previous
•07:30 HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.5 forecast,49.5 previous
•07:30 HCOB Germany Services PMI (Oct) 51.1 forecast,51.5 previous
•08:00 HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.8 forecast,49.8 previous
•08:00 HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Oct) 51.0 forecast,51.2 previous
•08:00 HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Oct) 51.2 forecast,51.3 previous
•08:30 UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) 50.6 forecast,50.1 previous
•08:30 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 46.6 forecast,46.2 previous
•08:30 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Oct) 51.0 forecast,50.8 previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• 9:15 UK BoE Deputy Governor Woods Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped against the dollar on Friday as investors awaited delayed U.S. inflation data, which is unlikely to affect expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week. Trade tensions resurfaced after President Trump said all talks with Canada were terminated, citing a misleading advertisement involving former President Reagan and tariffs .The meeting in South Korea has spurred some expectations of a resolution to the on-again off-again trade war between the world's top two economies. Focus is now on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is expected to show that core inflation held at 3.1% in September. The report has been delayed due to the government shutdown.Investors have nearly fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's meeting next week.The euro was 0.11% weaker at $1.1606, poised for a 0.4% drop for the week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1662(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1728(Oct 17th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1561(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1523(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound remained under pressure against the dollar on Friday as investors awaited delayed U.S. inflation data, which is unlikely to affect expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week. U.S. consumer prices are expected to have risen for a second consecutive month in September, driven by higher costs for tariff-sensitive goods, while core inflation for services like air travel and hotels likely eased after August’s surge.The Labor Department’s CPI report is being released despite the government shutdown to assist the Social Security Administration in calculating the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment. The report was originally scheduled for October 15. The U.S. central bank tracks the Personal Consumption Expenditures price indexes for its 2% inflation target. The Fed is expected to lower its benchmark overnight interest rate by another 25 basis points next Wednesday to the 3.75%-4.00% range. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3386(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3399(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3294(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3265(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dipped on Friday as investors digested release Australian Purchasing Managers Index data. Australia’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.7 in October 2025 from 51.4 in September, signaling a return to contraction after nine straight months of growth.The Services PMI rose to 53.1 in October from 52.4 in September, while the Composite PMI improved slightly to 52.6 from 52.4 previously.The third-quarter Australia CPI, scheduled for release next Wednesday, will be the key event on next week’s calendar and is expected to play a decisive role in determining whether the Reserve Bank of Australia lowers its 3.60% cash rate at the November 3–4 meeting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6524(Oct 22nd high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6544(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6476(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6442(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Friday as Japanese yen continued to weaken despite hot Japan CPI data for September .Japan’s core consumer prices rose 2.9% year-on-year in September, exceeding the central bank’s 2% target and fueling expectations of a near-term rate hike.Separate data showed, Japan’s manufacturing sector shrank in October at its fastest rate in 19 months, driven by a sharper fall in new orders, a private-sector survey showed Friday. At next week’s two-day meeting, the BOJ will review the data as it evaluates whether to keep rates at 0.5% and release fresh growth and price forecasts.BOJ exited a decade of extensive stimulus last year and raised short-term interest rates to 0.5% in January, citing progress toward its 2% inflation goal, keeping rates unchanged afterward. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.27(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.58 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks surged on Friday after the White House confirmed that U.S. President Donald Trump will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping next week, boosting hopes for trade deal progress ahead of a tariff deadline.
At GMT (05:35 ) Hang Seng was up 0.40% ,China’sA50 traded up 1.03% ,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1.45%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices dipped on Friday, heading for their first weekly loss in 10 weeks, pressured by a stronger dollar and position adjustments ahead of a key U.S. inflation report.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $4,116.09 per ounce, as of 0504 GMT. Bullion has fallen 3% so far this week, heading for its biggest weekly percentage drop since mid-May.U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 0.4% to $4,131.10 per ounce.
Oil prices eased in early Friday trading, retracing part of Thursday’s gains but still set for a weekly rise, as new U.S. sanctions on Russia’s top two oil firms stoked supply worries.
Brent crude futures fell 36 cents, or 0.55%, to $65.63 at 0333 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 33 cents, or 0.58%, at $61.43.
