Market Roundup
• China House Prices YoY (YoY) (Jan)-3.1% ,-2.7%previous
•New Zealand Inflation Expectations QoQ (QoQ)2.4%,2.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•07:00 Germany Wholesale Price Index (WPI) MoM (Jan): 0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous.
•07:00 Germany Wholesale Price Index (WPI) YoY (Jan): 1.2% previous.
•07:30 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM (Jan): 0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous.
•07:30 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY (Jan): 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous.
•10:00 Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) YoY (Q4): 1.3% forecast, 1.4% previous.
•10:00 Eurozone Trade Balance (Dec): 11.8B forecast, 9.9B previous.
•10:00 Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ (Q4): 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•10:00 Eurozone Employment Overall (Q4): 1,72,210.4K forecast.
•10:00 Eurozone Employment Change QoQ (Q4): 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•10:00 Eurozone Employment Change YoY (Q4): 0.6% forecast, 0.6% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•12:00 European Central Bank Luis De Guindos Speaks
•12:00 BOE Pill Speaks
Currency forecast
EUR/USD : The euro eased on Friday lack of clear directional drivers and subdued trading activity reflected broader hesitation ahead of key economic data releases.Eurozone Q4 flash employment data, forecast at +0.1% quarter-on-quarter, along with GDP growth expected at +0.3%, will provide important insight into the region’s economic momentum. Stronger figures could reinforce confidence in the Eurozone recovery and support the euro, while weaker data may increase concerns about slowing growth.According to a Reuters poll, the European Central Bank is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.0% throughout 2026, reflecting expectations that inflation will remain under control and that policymakers will adopt a wait-and-see approach. This steady policy outlook may limit euro volatility unless economic conditions shift significantly. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1872(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1974(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1783(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1724(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower against dollar on Friday amid expectations that the Bank of England may maintain a dovish stance. Investors are cautious, limiting aggressive long positions as they await further guidance from central bank signals. The UK economy showed very modest growth in Q4, indicating lingering fragility. Budget uncertainty and ongoing policy ambiguity have weighed on confidence, keeping the pound under pressure. Political concerns have slightly eased, preventing a sharp sell-off, but the risk of renewed volatility remains if any unexpected political developments occur. U.S. CPI data due Friday is a critical focus for global investors, as it will shape expectations around the Federal Reserve’s near-term rate path. For the UK, next week’s unemployment and inflation figures will provide further insight into the health of the economy and could influence BoE policy expectations. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3663(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3733(Feb 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3583 (SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3512(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased on Friday as investors reduce risk exposure and shift toward safer assets in response to deteriorating global market sentiment. However, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish policy stance and the Australian dollar’s attractive yield advantage are expected to provide underlying support and limit deeper losses. Investors are also focused on the release of the RBA’s February monetary policy meeting minutes on Tuesday, which could offer fresh insight into the central bank’s outlook and future rate path.Markets generally assume the RBA will wait for first-quarter inflation data before deciding whether to move on rates, and those are due in late April.Markets are pricing in a 70% probability of a rate hike to 3.85% in May, compared with just a 20% chance of a move at the March meeting.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7126(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7202(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7068(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6700(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher but gains were limited as diverging BoJ and Fed policy expectations capped further upside. Investors remain optimistic that Sanae Takaichi will adopt fiscally responsible policies that could strengthen Japan’s economy.This could encourage the Bank of Japan to maintain its policy normalization path, which, together with prevailing risk-off sentiment, supports the safe-haven Japanese yen.A stronger yen has dominated the forex market this week, surprising investors who had expected the currency to weaken if Sanae Takaichi secured a strong mandate. The yen was on track for its strongest week in nearly 15 months on Friday, rising steadily as Sanae Takaichi's historic election win eased investor concerns over Japan’s fiscal health. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.65(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.89 (Lower BB) a break below could take the pair towards 151.29 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian shares pulled back from record highs on Friday as concerns over tightening tech margins, weighing on companies like Apple, pushed investors toward safe-haven bonds ahead of key U.S. inflation data.
Hang Sang was down 2.11%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 1.10% ,South Korea’s KOSPI was down at 0.18 %
Commodities Recap
Oil prices were steady on Friday after the previous session’s drop and are heading for a second weekly loss, as easing Iran conflict concerns and expectations of oversupply weighed on the market..
Brent crude oil futures were up 3 cents, or 0.04%, at $67.55 a barrel at 0205 GMT after falling 2.7% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 1 cents, or 0.02%, to $62.85 after falling 2.8%.
Gold rebounded on Friday on bargain-hunting after hitting one-week lows, as strong U.S. jobs data reduced rate-cut expectations.
Spot gold was up 1% at $4,966.83 per ounce by 0127 GMT after falling more than 3% in the previous session to a near one-week low below the key $5,000 level.
U.S. gold futures for April delivery gained 0.7% to $4,985.40 per ounce.
