Market Roundup
• Australia Building Approvals (YoY) (Jan) 9.10% ,5.60% forecast, 10.10% previous
• Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Jan) 6.3%, -0.1% forecast, 1.7% previous
• Australia Exports (MoM) (Jan) 1.3%, 1.2% previous
• Australia Imports (MoM) (Jan): -0.3%, 5.9% previous
• Australia Private House Approvals (Jan) 1.1%, -2.8% previous
• Australia Trade Balance (Jan) 5.620B, 5.850B forecast, 4.920B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•07:00 Sweden CPI (YoY) (Feb) 1.1%forecast, 0.9% previous
•07:00 Sweden CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.4% forecast, 0.0% previous
•07:00 Sweden CPIF (CPI at constant interest rates) (MoM) (Feb) 0.7% forecast, 0.4% previous
•07:00 Sweden CPIF (CPI at constant interest rates) (YoY) (Feb) 2.7% forecast,2.2% previous
•08:30 HCOB Italy Construction PMI (Feb) 50.9 previous
•08:30 HCOB Germany Construction PMI (Feb) 42.5 previous
•08:30 HCOB France Construction PMI (Feb) 44.5 previous
•08:30 HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI (Feb) 45.4 forecast, 45.4 previous
•09:30 UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Feb) 49.5 forecast, 48.1 previous
•10:00 EU Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) 1.9% forecast, 1.9% previous
•10:00 EU Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro held steady near four-month high on Thursday as euro stood tall ahead of the European Central Bank's meeting. All eyes will be on the ECB when it announces its policy decision at 1315 GMT, followed by ECB President Christine Lagarde's 1345 GMT press conference. The meeting comes a day after the euro jumped 1.5% and German bonds were sold off as the parties in talks to form Germany's new government agreed to create a 500 billion euro ($540.70 billion) infrastructure fund and to overhaul borrowing rules. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.0815, just shy of the four-month peak.The single currency is on course for a rise of more than 4% this week, its strongest weekly performance since March 2009. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0820(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0902(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0772(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0657(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound gained on Thursday as the dollar weakened after U.S. President Donald Trump's administration gave a one-month reprieve on auto import levies to Canada and Mexico, again showing how rapidly the trade landscape can shift.The risk-sensitive sterling and Australian dollar benefitted, with the British currency touching a four-month peak. The market now awaits the non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to show a gain of 160,000 jobs for February. Sterling edged as high as $1.2906, a level last seen on November 11.The U.S. dollar index was little changed at 104.31, after easing to 104.25 overnight for the first time since November 8.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2920(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2949(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2777(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2672(50%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar hit one week high on Thursday as the Australian dollar gained some traction after the U.S. offered some tariff relief for automakers.On Wednesday, the White House announced a one-month exemption from Trump's 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican automakers, provided they adhere to existing free trade rules. On the data front, Australia's surplus on trade goods widened in January, driven by a surge in gold exports. Home building approvals also jumped a solid 6.3%, heralding a pick up in the construction sector. At GMT 06:27, The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.06% to $0.6339. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6358(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6418(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6290(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6222(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar weakened against the yen on Thursday after the U.S. exempted automakers from the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for a month. The automakers will be exempted as long as they comply with an existing free trade agreement, the White House said, noting that Trump is also open to hearing about other products that should be exempted from the tariffs, which took effect on Tuesday.The new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada were imposed along with fresh duties on Chinese goods, sparking trade wars that fueled worries about economic growth. Looking ahead ,investors awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls data due later this week to assess the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory as global trade tensions escalated. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.34(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.18(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.31(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.67(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks rose on Thursday as investors held out hope that trade tensions could ease after U.S. President Donald Trump exempted automakers from tariffs for a month
Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.91% , South Korea's KOSPI was up 0.70%,Hang Seng was up by 3.05 %, China A50 was up by 1.21%
Commodities Recap
Gold edged higher on Thursday as a weaker U.S. dollar provided support, while investors awaited non-farm payrolls data for insights into the Fed’s rate outlook amid rising trade tensions.
Spot gold firmed 0.1% to $2,922.86 an ounce as of 0320 GMT, while U.S. gold futures added 0.2% to $2,931.60.
Oil prices climbed on Thursday after hitting a multi-year low, but gains were limited by tariff uncertainties and rising supply expectations.
Brent futures were trading up 39 cents, or 0.56%, at $69.69 a barrel by 0416 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures climbed 39 cents, or 0.59%, to $66.70 a barrel.
