Market Roundup
- UK Nov GfK consumer confidence +1, lowest since mid-'13, +2 forecast, Oct +2.
- Japan Oct nationwide core CPI -0.1% y/y, as forecast, down for third straight month, core-core CPI +0.7%l; Tokyo Nov core CPI unch y/y, -0.1% forecast.
- Japan Oct unemployment 3.1%, lowest since July '95, jobs-applicants ratio 1.24, 3.4% and 1.24 forecast, jobs-applicants ratio unch m/m, at recent highs.
- Japan Oct household spending -0.7% m/m, -2.4% y/y, +1.1% and +0.1% forecast, reflects anemic wage growth - Stats Bureau.
- Japan FinMin Aso - Instructed by PM Abe to compile extra budget, won't cut corporate taxes without securing funding resources - Reuters.
- China Oct industrial profits -4.6% y/y, Jan-Oct -2.0%, impact of FX and lower investment income less pronounced in Oct than previous months.
- EconMin Amari - Notes weakness in household spending, lack of consumer confidence, still wants to achieve halving primary budget deficit target.
- MoF flow data week-ended Nov 21 - Japanese buy net Y342.5 bln foreign stocks, Y410.9 bln bonds, sell Y9.1 bln bills; foreign investors buy net Y178.7 bln Japanese stocks, Y855.5 bln bonds, sell trln bills.
- CABEI launches Y10 bln 5/10-yr dual samurais via Daiwa, Mizuho.
- Copper at near 2-week high as funds reverse bearish beets - Reuters.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0200 ET/0700 GMT) United Kingdom Nov Nationwide HPI, +0.5% m/m forecast; last +0.6%
- (0245 ET/0745 GMT) France Oct consumer spending, -0.1% m/m forecast; last unch.
- (0245 ET/0745 GMT) France Oct producer prices; last +0.1% m/m
- (0300 ET/0800 GMT) Spain Nov HICP - flash, -0.6% y/y forecast; last -0.9%.
- (0330 ET/0830 GMT) Sweden Oct retail sales, +0.2% m/m, +.2% y/y forecast; last +0.7%, +3.7%.
- (0400 ET/0900 GMT) Norway Oct retail sales ex-autos, +0.5% m/m forecast; last -0.8%.
- (0400 ET/0900 GMT) Norway Nov unemployment, 2.9% nsa, 100.5k sa forecast; last 2.9%, 98.97k
- (0400 ET/0900 GMT) Italy Nov business confidence index, 105.9 forecast; last 105.9.
- (0400 ET/0900 GMT) Italy Nov consumer confidence index, 116.5 forecast; last 116.9.
- (0430 ET/0930 GMT) Great Britain Q3 GDP - 2nd release, +0.5% q/q, +2.3% y/y forecast; prelim +0.5%, +2.3%.
- (0500 ET/1000 GMT) Eurozone Nov economic sentiment index, 105.9 forecast; last 105.9.
- (0500 ET/1000 GMT) Eurozone Nov business climate index, 0.45 forecast; last 0.44.
- (0500 ET/1000 GMT) Eurozone Nov industrial sentiment index, -2.1 forecast; last -2.0.
- (0500 ET/1000 GMT) Eurozone Nov services sentiment index, 12.0 forecast; last 11.9.
- (0500 ET/1000 GMT) Eurozone Nov consumer confidence index - final, -7.7 forecast; prelim -7.7.
- (0530 ET/1030 GMT) Belgium Nov CPI; last +0.35% m/m, +1.28% y/y.
- (0700 ET/1200 GMT) Germany Dec GfK consumer sentiment index, 9.2 forecast; last 9.4.
Key Events Ahead
- N/A United Kingdom DMO GBP1/2.5/2 bln 1/3/6-month treasury bill auctions.
- (0100 ET/0600 GMT) Bank of Spain Gov Linde at Rabat, Morocco financial stability conference.
- (0500 ET/1000 GMT) Italy E2-2.5 and 1.25-1.75 bln 0.65% and 2% 2020 and 2025 BTP auctions.
- (0500 ET/1000 GMT) Italy E0.5-1 bln 0.381% 2022 index-linked CCT auction.
FX Beat
USD: The dollar index was steady at 99.844, up and not far from an 8-1/2 month peak of 100.170 scaled on Wednesday. For the week, it was up about 0.2 percent.
Against the yen, the dollar was nearly flat at 122.60, remaining in consolidation mode after reaching a three-month high of 123.77 on Nov. 18, and up from this
week's low of 122.26.
EUR/USD: The single currency remains stuck in a tight range against the Greenback. It managed to hold above $1.0600 and last stood at $1.0610, but it remained within reach of a 7-1/2 month trough of $1.0565 set on Wednesday. Against the yen it edged up slightly to 130.09, but was not far off a 7-month low of 129.77 plumbed on Wednesday. Daily Tenkan at 1.0664 continues to exert pressure on the upside. Thanksgiving holiday and Black Friday may keep trading subdued for the rest of the week. Looking ahead, ECB policy decision and US nonfarm payrolls report will awaken investors' interest next week. Supports on the downside are seen at 1.0565 (7-month low Nov 25), while 1.0627 (Nov 26 high) is immediate resistance for the pair. Against the yen, the euro edged up slightly to 130.09 , but was still not far off a 7-month low of 129.77 plumbed on Wednesday.
USD/JPY: The pair was rejected at highs, upside seems to be capped at 122.73 (Nov 26 high), breaks above would see the pair at major resistance at 122.90. No
major chart support seen on the downside, minor support lies at 122.50 (Nov 26 lows) and further below at 122.40 (23.6 % Fibo of 118.05-123.75 rise). Breaks below
could take the pair to 121.63 levels
GBP/USD: Sterling slipped down towards a seven-month low against the dollar on Thursday, with upbeat UK forecasts and a spending review by the finance minister
the previous day not changing the view that interest rates will not rise any time soon. Cable unable to hold above the 1.51 handle, once again, now pushing
GBP/USD to session lows towards Asia closing. continues to remain bid amid quiet markets while the pound faces renewed selling pressure heading into Europe, as markets expected UK GDP second estimate to disappoint. Immediate resistance is located at 1.5107 (5-DMA), while support on the flipside is seen at 1.5051 (Nov 24
Low).
AUD/USD: The Aussie was on track for hefty gains against the battered euro, which has tumbled around 5 percent this month on expectations that the European Central bank will roll out more stimulus in December. Against the U.S. dollar, the Aussie held at $0.7228, having touched a one-month peak of $0.7283 on Wednesday. On the day, the pair trades a modest 0.7214/33 range in Asia and was last at 0.7223 in holiday thinned trading (last nights US Thanksgiving holiday). Daily price action has dipped back inside the daily cloud, Slow stochs are rolling over from overbought zone and also Wed's failure at 0.7283 upped downside risks.
Support remains at the overnight low (0.7210) and further below at daily Tenkan by 0.7176, while topside looks capped at 0.7278 (Trendline resistance)
EUR/AUD: The downtrend for the pair remains intact, 1.44 levels look a possible target level. Price action is well below the cloud, immediate support is at 1.4582 (Nov 25 lows), while resistance is located at 1.4785 (61.8 % Fibo of Apr 29 - Aug 24 rise).
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar was subdued at $0.6563, from a peak of $0.6598 on Thursday. It touched a 2-week high of $0.6606 this week, but was down nearly 3 percent in November.
USD/CNY: China's onshore yuan slipped against the dollar after the PBoC set the midpoint at a three-month low, ahead of the International Monetary Fund's board meeting on Monday that is set to decide on the yuan's inclusion in its reserve basket. The Bank set the midpoint rate at 6.3915 per dollar prior to market open, 0.03 percent weaker than the previous fix 6.3896, the lowest since Aug. 28. In reaction to the weaker than expected fixing, the spot market opened at 6.3928 per dollar, its weakest in three months, and was changing hands at 6.3945 at midday, 0.08 percent weaker than the previous close.
Equities Recap
Asian shares were steady and U.S. stock futures climbed higher in early trade on Friday as expectations of additional stimulus from the European Central Bank underpinned appetite for riskier assets, while the euro hovered near seven-month lows.
Japan's Nikkei reversed earlier gains to slip 0.3 percent, but was on track for a weekly gain of 0.2 percent. The Shanghai Composite index retreated 0.6 percent, heading for a 0.5 percent drop for the week. The broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside of Japan dropped 0.5 percent, extending losses for the week to 0.7 percent.
Australia's Asx 200 Index closed down 0.16 Pct At 5,202.40 Points, with Taiwan Stocks slipped 1.0 Pct At 8,398.40.
Commodities Recap
Gold dropped towards its lowest level in nearly six years on Friday and was on track for a sixth straight weekly decline, weakened by a robust dollar and expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike next month. Spot gold dropped 0.4 percent to $1,067.60 an ounce by 0322 GMT, edging close to $1,064.95 reached last week, the metal's lowest since February 2010.
Crude oil futures dropped on Friday with losses this month at over 8 percent, hurt by disappointing Chinese economic data and worries over a supply glut. Brent
crude was down 4 cents to $45.42 per barrel by 0240 GMT, after settling down 71 cents at $45.46 in the previous session. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures, the U.S. crude benchmark slipped 1.16 percent, to $42.54 per barrel. They are up 5.3 percent so far this week, but have plunged 8.7 percent since the beginning of
the month.
Benchmark copper on the London Mental Exchange gained 1.9 percent on Thursday to $4,636.15 per tonne, recovering 4.3 percent from Monday's 6 1/2-year low of $4,443.50. They extended the gains on Friday, advancing 0.3 percent to $4,650, on track for a weekly gain of 1.5 percent. Zinc and Nickel also climbed on Thursday,
helped by expectations of output cuts in China.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield last stood at 2.2148.
Australian government bond futures had a soft tone, with the 3-year bond contract off 2 ticks at 97.910. The 10-year contract eased 1.5 tick to 97.1250, while
the 20-year contract shed 1 tick to 96.6250.
New Zealand government bonds gained, sending yields down half a basis point at the short end and down 1 bps at the long end.
Canadian government bond prices were higher across the maturity curve, with the 2-year price up 1.5 Canadian cents to yield 0.623 percent and the benchmark 10-year rising 21 Canadian cents to yield 1.567 percent.
