Market Roundup
•Japan Services PMI (Sep): 53.1, forecast: 53.9, 53.7 previous
•Australia Exports (MoM) (Aug) -0.2%, forecast, 0.3% previous
•Australia Imports (MoM) (Aug) -0.2%, forecast,-0.6% previous
•Australia Trade Balance (Aug) 5.644B, .510B forecast, 5.636B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•07:45 Italian Composite PMI (Sep): 50.8 previous
•07:45 Italian Services PMI (Sep): 51.2, forecast: 51.4 previous
•07:50 French S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep): 47.4, forecast: 53.1previous
•07: 50 French Services PMI (Sep): 48.3, forecast: 55.0 previous
•08:00 German Composite PMI (Sep): 47.2, forecast: 48.4 previous
•08:00 German Services PMI (Sep): 50.6, forecast: 51.2 previous
•08:00 EUS&P Global Composite PMI (Sep): 48.9, forecast: 51.0
•08:00 EU Services PMI (Sep): 50.5, forecast: 52.9 previous
•08:30 UK Composite PMI (Sep): 52.9, forecast: 53.8 previous
•08:30 UK Services PMI (Sep): 52.8, forecast: 53.7 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Thursday after normally hawkish European Central Bank policymaker Isabel Schnabel took a dovish tone on inflation, cementing bets for a rate cut this month. The ECB's Schnabel said euro zone inflation was increasingly likely to ease back to the central bank's 2% target, dropping her long-standing warning about the difficulty of taming prices.Traders now lay 95% odds for a quarter-point rate cut on Oct. 17, and are even pricing a very small chance of a 50 basis point reduction. The euro eased 0.1% to $1.10345, putting it close to Wednesday's low of $1.10325, a level last seen on Sept. 12. Immediate resistance is noted at 1.1046 (38.2%fib), with a breakout potentially pushing the pair towards 1.1066 (50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is at 1.1026 (Daily low), a drop below this level could lead the pair towards 1.1000 (Psychological level).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped against dollar on Thursday as after the ADP national employment report showed U.S. private payrolls increased more than expected in September, ahead of Friday's highly anticipated jobs data.Private payrolls increased by 143,000 jobs last month after rising by an upwardly revised 103,000 in August, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 120,000 job additions.Traders are also keeping a close eye on geopolitical tensions a day after Israel was attacked by Iran in a strike that raised fears the oil-producing Middle East could be engulfed in a wider conflict. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3196(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3244(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3139(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3079(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dipped to around $0.685 on Thursday, pulling back from 19-month highs as the U.S. dollar gained strength due to stronger-than-expected private employment data.The ADP's private payrolls report on Wednesday showed a larger-than-expected 143,000 increase in U.S. jobs last month, raising expectations for a strong non-farm payrolls reading on Friday that could be critical for dictating the pace of Fed easing.Currently, traders lay 35.9% odds of another 50 basis-point U.S. rate cut on Nov. 7, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, after the Fed kicked off its easing cycle with a super-sized reduction last month.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6888(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6909(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6859(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6857(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose versus the yen on Thursday after new Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba came out against another rise in interest rates.Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Japan is not in an environment for an additional rate increase, an apparent effort to shake off his reputation as a monetary hawk, after a meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Wednesday. After taking the top job on Tuesday, Ishiba immediately called a snap general election for Oct. 27, four days ahead of the BOJ's next policy decision.The new premier has also rolled back previously expressed support for higher corporate and capital gains taxes.Strong resistance can be seen at 147.33 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.71 (Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 145.90(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 145.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Japan's Nikkei share average rose 2% on Thursday, buoyed by a softer yen as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's dovish comments reduced bets of further tightening in monetary policy.
The Nikkei N225 closed 1.97% higher at 38,552.06
Commodities Recap
Oil prices rose on Thursday as the prospect of a widening Middle East conflict that could disrupt crude oil flows from the key exporting region overshadowed a stronger global supply outlook.
Brent crude futures were up 94 cents, or 1.27%, to $74.84 a barrel at 0615 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 99 cents, or 1.41%, to $71.09.
old edged lower on Thursday, trading in a tight range, as investors were cautious ahead of a key U.S. economic data that might provide clues about the size of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts expected later this year.
Spot gold edged down 0.1% to $2,653.95 per ounce by 0612 GMT, trading in a tight range of $11. Prices hit a record high of $2,685.42 on Sept. 26.U.S. gold futures gained 0.2% to $2,674.40.
