Australia’s trade surplus surges in November, well above market expectations

Australia’s trade surplus surged to AUD5.8bn in November, well above our and market expectations. The rise in the trade surplus was from a combination of higher exports and lower imports, up 1.8 percent m/m and down 2.8 percent m/m respectively. Stronger resources and services exports drove most of the increase.

By our reckoning, the stronger resource export figure reflects an increase in volume. Imports on the other hand were down, with a particularly sharp decline in consumption goods. This decline is further indication that household spending is subdued.

Total resource exports rose 0.9 percent m/m in November and are now 3 percent higher than a year ago. The increase largely reflects higher iron ore exports, which rose 2.1 percent m/m, as well as LNG, up 0.9 percent m/m. These rises were partially offset by a sharp decline in non-monetary gold, which fell 6 percent m/m, continuing the strong decline in the previous month.

The RBA’s commodity price index was down 3.8 percent in November, which suggests that the rise in resource exports was likely due to a rise in volume. Manufacturing exports had a soft month, down 0.3 percent m/m, which follows the large rise in the previous month. Service exports continued to rise, up 1.1 percent m/m, leaving them 8.9 percent higher than a year ago.

Consumption imports fell 6.6 percent m/m, leading the fall in imports. A large part of this was driven by a 20.7 percent m/m decline in car imports, which are now down over 19 percent y/y. The capital goods imports figure was the other large fall for the month, declining 3.9 percent m/m. Fuel imports were down 4.9 percent m/m, largely reversing the sharp rise the previous month.

"Looking forward to last December’s trade balance figures and the next two quarters, we will be looking for any impact from the bushfires on tourism-related expenditure," ANZ Research commented in its latest report.