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Britain's housing market showed strong signs of recovery last month, with house prices, sales, and buyer inquiries all increasing, according to the latest report from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). However, the rental sector continues to face growing pressure as tenant demand significantly exceeds the availability of rental properties.
RICS' September report revealed that its house price balance—a measure tracking the difference between surveyors reporting house price rises versus declines—turned positive for the first time since October 2022. The house price balance surged to +11 in September, a notable improvement from the revised reading of zero in August. This exceeded economists' expectations, which had forecast a rise to +4.
Surveyors are optimistic about the future, with a net balance of +54 expecting house prices to increase over the next year, marking the strongest forecast since April 2022. Additionally, the outlook for sales is also improving, as the net balance for expected sales in the next 12 months rose to +45, a sharp contrast to the +3 seen a year ago.
Tarrant Parsons, Head of Market Analytics at RICS, highlighted that the recent reduction in borrowing costs has been a significant factor in boosting buyer demand. "We anticipate further monetary easing in the coming months, which should create a more favorable environment for the housing market," Parsons noted.
The Bank of England's base rate, currently at 5%, saw its first reduction in four years in August. While the central bank held rates steady in its most recent meeting, market analysts have predicted an 83% likelihood of a quarter-point rate cut on November 7th, potentially providing further momentum for the housing sector.
This sentiment is echoed by other housing market indicators. Data from Halifax, a leading mortgage lender, showed that house prices in September grew at their fastest annual pace since late 2022, further signaling a recovery in the market.
However, rising capital gains tax concerns could impact the property supply. With a potential increase in capital gains tax expected in the new Labour government's upcoming budget, some homeowners are rushing to sell their properties. This trend may lead to a shortage of homes in the rental market, intensifying the already high demand from tenants.
In the rental market, demand continues to rise, with expectations that rents will increase in the coming months due to the limited supply of available rental properties. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves has already cautioned that some taxes may rise in the upcoming budget, scheduled for October 30th, which could further impact housing decisions.
