Chinese GDP on Wednesday to disappoint

China will release its GDP estimate for the initial quarter on 15^th April Wednesday. Market is already expecting bigger drop of around 0.3% from previous.

• Today's weaker than expected trade statistics, gave further rise to speculation that GDP might even be lower than average market expectation of around 7%.

For China watchers' this is truly an eventful week.

Data released so far -

• Exports dropped 15% y/y in March and imports dropped 12.7% from a year ago. Trade balance was lowest since March 2014.

Upcoming release -

• Industrial production data on April 15^th 2:00 GMT, along with GDP number, Retail sales and urban investment statistics.
  
  
• Money supply growth M2, Forex reserve and foreign direct investment and details of new loans, all will be released sometime this week.

Weaker than expected GDP will keep downside pressure on commodities and Australian and New Zealand dollar.

However, sentiment remains one sided regarding the GDP. Commodities, Aussie and kiwi will rally, should GDP surprise to the upside. Any upside rally without surprise of at least 0.3% points in GDP growth will be limited.