In recent OPEC meeting, we have revised down our WTI oil price forecast to no more than US$40-45 per barrel for 2016 and US$45-50 for 2017.
Global demand has increased at the fastest pace in five years in 2015 (+1.9% or 1.8 mb/d) and is projected to advance another 1.2-1.3 mb/d in 2017, with low gasoline & diesel prices spurring consumer demand in the United States, China and Europe and cheap fuel oil taking market share away from imported LNG in China.
However, world oil production is set to climb by 2.7 mb/d this year, with gains by both OPEC and Non-OPEC producers.
WTI oil prices - currently just below US$35 per barrel- have continued to drift lower following OPEC's December 4 meeting - and could drop to US$30 near-term.
In the run-up to the OPEC meeting, Saudi Arabia was apparently willing to implement a series of output cuts over the next several years to bring prices back to the US$50 mark.
