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During today's monetary policy session, the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to keep its deposit rate at 2.00%, pointing to a second pause after significant June 2024 to June 2025 rate cuts. Money markets are pricing in minimal chances of additional easing this year, with the ECB likely to emphasize its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. While avoiding any overt direction on future rate moves, President Christine Lagarde is projected to uphold the "good position" narrative.
Economic data point to resilience throughout the eurozone, with underlying inflation marginally below the 2% objective but projected to level off by 2027. Growth keeps surprising. Positive growth is fueled by strong private consumption, a manufacturing recovery, and PMI data indicating expansion. The eurozone economy has shown adaptability despite geopolitical unrest and high US tariffs on EU imports, therefore easing worries of drawn-out recessions.
Market analysts generally think the ECB's easing cycle is over, and the current 2% deposit rate will probably serve as the bottom of the cycle. Any chance of alleviating would call for a major growth shock, undue Euro strengthening, or heightened US-EU trade tensions. To be released today along with the announcement, the ECB's revised projections are expected to show little difference from June's estimates, therefore supporting the central bank's prudent upbeat approach.
