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ECB's Evolving Interest Rate Policy
The European Central Bank (ECB) may have to adjust its monetary policy more swiftly than previously anticipated, according to Latvian central bank chief Martins Kazaks. However, he emphasized that interest rates should not drop to levels that stimulate economic growth.
Current Rate Cuts and Inflation Projections
This year, the ECB has already implemented three rate cuts. Some policymakers are concerned that the bank might soon fall short of its 2% inflation target, which could necessitate lowering rates below the neutral level, effectively providing stimulus. Kazaks stated, “For rates to go below the neutral, the economic baseline would have to be much weaker”, assuring that the current economic situation does not warrant such drastic measures.
Inflation Trends and Economic Caution
Kazaks noted that inflation may decrease faster than the ECB had forecast in September, but this should not be viewed as a fundamental change in price growth trends. Although wage and service price growth remains relatively high, energy costs have driven much of the anticipated undershoot.
“Reaching the 2% target sustainably could happen slightly sooner,” Kazaks remarked, indicating that a faster approach to policy easing may be necessary. The ECB’s latest prediction suggests inflation will meet its target by late 2025, but some officials believe it may occur earlier.
Looking Ahead to December
As discussions about a possible 50 basis point rate cut in December begin, Kazaks urges caution, emphasizing that forthcoming data will significantly influence the ECB’s decisions before its next meeting on December 12.
