EUR/PLN likely to trade at 4.23 by end-2017

The EUR/PLN pair has almost reversed all of its gains since mid-May to reach a recent high of 4.24 in the past month, noted Lloyds Bank. In spite of continued evidence of wage acceleration, other Polish activity data have been comparatively disappointing. This has resulted in the National Bank of Poland to confirm its commitment to keeping the interest rates on hold until at least mid-2018.

But, the bias, based on some of Poland’s MPC members’ comments, seems to be more hawkish. Still, most upward revisions to GDP growth forecasts since the beginning of the year have depended on stronger investment activity. This might prove elusive because of strained relations with the EU and the polarised political climate in Poland, stated Lloyds Bank.

“We forecast EUR/PLN to end the year at 4.23”, added Lloyds Bank.

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