Market Roundup
- EUR/USD raises to fresh recovery highs at 1.0990.
- GBP/USD under pressure near key support, plays 1.5343/1.5273.
- NZD/USD hits its lowest since Sept 2010, plays 0.7195/0.7107.
- USD/JPY tight and bearish after peaking at 124.46 Thursday.
- Euro Zone April Money-M3 Annual growth 5.3% vs previous 4.6%. 4.9% expected.
- Norway April sales data shows strong rise, NOK recovers.
- Euro Zone April Money-Private loans 0.09% vs previous 0.1%. 0.2% expected.
- Euro Zone April Money-M3 £M Moving Average 4/7% vs previous 4.2% revised.
- Switzerland Q1 GDP -0.2% q/q, 1.1% y/y vs previous 0.6%/1.9%. -0.1%/1.5% expected.
- Switzerland May KOF indicator 93.1 vs previous 89.8 revised. 90.0 expected.
- China C. Bank- Fiscal & money policy will remain neither too tight nor too loose.
- China C.Bank- Will strictly controls risks for cross-border capital flows.
- William Hill quotes 11/4 Britain votes to leave EU in 2016/17 referendum vs 2/1 last Friday.
Economic Data Ahead
- N/A BLS Strike Report (May).
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) Real GDP Q1 (consensus -0.7% q/q April, previous +0.2% q/q April).
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) Real Final Sales (previous -0.5% q/q April).
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) Core PCE Deflator (previous +0.9% q/q April).
- (0945 ET/1345 GMT) Chicago PMI (May) (consensus 53.0, previous 52.3).
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (consensus 93.3, previous 88.6).
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) University of Michigan Current Conditions Index (previous 99.8).
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) University of Michigan Expectations Index (previous 81.5).
Key Events Ahead
- (1145 ET/1545 GMT) Fed Trade operation 30-year Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac (max $1.750 bn).
FX Recap
EUR/USD is supported above 1.0900 levels and currently trading at 1.0976 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.0986 and low at 1.0924 levels. The EMU data - M3 money supply, Italian GDP failed to have a significant impact on the EUR/USD pair. Ahead in the day, the second estimate of the US first quarter GDP could trigger moves in the pair. Initial support is seen at 1.0859 and resistance is seen around 1.1041 levels. Option expiries are at 1.0900, 1.0950 & 1.1000.
USD/JPY is trading below 124.00 levels and posted a high of 124.45 levels yesterday. It has made intraday low at 123.59 and currently trading at 124.01 levels. A data-filled Asian, with upbeat Japanese Core inflation print keeping the yen underpinned versus the US dollar. While Japanese stocks trades subdued amid stronger yen and falling Chinese equities. The US dollar extended its offered tone as traders remain nervous ahead of US Q1 GDP data due later today. Near term resistance is seen at 124.85 levels and support is seen at 123.22 levels.
GBP/USD is supported below at $1.5300. It made an intraday high at 1.5341 and low at 1.5266 levels. The pair took a breather in its downslide and is seen supported below 1.5300. The pair keeps losses in reaction to news that the second estimate of UK Q1 GDP reading showed the UK economy slowed its pace of growth compared to the final quarter of 2014, while the reading confirmed the first estimate. Today was data free session for UK. Initial support is seen at 1.5258 and resistance is seen around 1.5371 levels.
USD/CHF is supported below 0.9450 levels and trading at 0.9414 levels and made intraday low at 0.9399 and high at 0.9478 levels. In the meantime, the safe haven CHF continued to gather traction in recent weeks following increasing concerns about the EU-Greek debt talks. In the data front, the Switzerland economy contracted 0.2% inter-quarter during Q1 and 1.1% on a yearly basis, while the KOF Leading Indicator improved to 93.1 for the month of May vs. 90.0 expected and 89.8 previous. Near term support is seen at 0.9285 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9571 levels.
AUD/USD is supported below 0.7700 levels and trading at 0.7652 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7673 levels and low at 0.7631 levels. The Aussie remains boosted largely as traders took to profit-booking on their AUD shorts after worse-than expected Australia's private Capex figures spurred rate RBA cut bets dragging the AUD lower to fresh six week lows of 0.7619 on Thursday. Moreover, the US dollar took a breather in its recent rally and has edged lower ahead of US GDP data which also keeps the Aussie underpinned. Initial support is seen at 0.7619 and resistance at 0.7752 levels.
