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Market Roundup
• UK CPI (YoY) (Jul) 2.9%, 2.9% forecast, 2.6% previous
• UK PPI Input (MoM) (Jul) -1.7%, 0.0% forecast, -1.9% previous
• UK CPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
• UK Core PPI Output (MoM) (Jul) 0.6%, 0.5% previous
• UK Core PPI Output (YoY) (Jul) 2.8%, 2.6% previous
• UK PPI Output (YoY) (Jul) 3.1%, 3.2% forecast, 3.5% previous
• UK PPI Input (YoY) (Jul) 4.9%, 6.6% forecast, 7.4% previous
• UK RPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.6%, 0.8% forecast, 0.3% previous
• UK Core RPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.6%, 0.3% previous
• UK RPI (YoY) (Jul) 3.2%, 3.3% forecast, 3.0% previous
• UK CPI, n.s.a (Jul) 142.90, 142.50 previous
• UK Core RPI (YoY) (Jul) 3.1%, 2.9% previous
• UK Core CPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.2%, 0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
• UK Core CPI (YoY) (Jul) 2.6%, 2.5% forecast, 2.6% previous
• UK PPI Output (MoM) (Jul) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
• EU Current Account (Jun) 35.1B, 26.8B forecast, 25.1B previous
• EU Current Account n.s.a. (Jun) 46.9B, -6.2B previous
• EU CPI (YoY) (Jul) 2.9%, 2.9% forecast, 2.8% previous
• EU Core CPI (YoY) (Jul) 2.5%, 2.5% forecast, 2.4% previous
• EU CPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.2%, 2.8% forecast, -0.1% previous
• EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Jul) 0.0%, 0.0% forecast, 0.2% previous
• EU CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Jul) 0.2%, -0.1% previous
• EU Core CPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.0%, 0.0% forecast, 0.2% previous
• EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Jul) 2.2%, 2.2% forecast, 2.1% previous
• EU CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Jul) 2.9%, 2.7% previous
• EU CPI, n.s.a (Jul) 103.24, 103.22 forecast, 103.02 previous
• US Crude Oil Inventories 4.405M,0.200M forecast,17.423M previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 18:00 US 20-Year Bond Auction 5.163% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 19:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro strengthened on Wednesday as dollar weakened broadly ahead of minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting . Federal Reserve's release of minutes from the most recent meeting of its monetary policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee later in the day, looking for clues as to policymakers' views on interest rates.Data released in the past few weeks have pointed to a softer U.S. economy, including unexpected job losses in July and mild inflation readings, leading investors to scale back rate-hike bets.. The euro inched up 0.1% to $1.1585, remaining close to the two-month high touched earlier this week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1674(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1699(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1628(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1552(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened on Wednesday as investors digested UK inflation data.UK inflation rose as expected in July, with investors assessing the latest economic data for clues on whether sterling can extend its three-week winning streak.The resilience of the UK economy has supported the pound, although elevated oil prices remain a headwind amid fading hopes of a U.S.-Iran deal to end the conflict.UK annual CPI inflation increased to 2.9% in July from 2.6% in June, matching the Reuters consensus. The reading was slightly above the Bank of England’s 2.8% forecast issued last month. .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3663(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3690(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3552(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3524(Daily low).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rose on Wednesday as dollar weakened ahead of the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's July 28-29 policy meeting. The U.S. central bank is scheduled to release the minutes of its last policy meeting at 1800 GMT.Expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady at its September 15-16 meeting stand at 65%, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, after recent weak U.S. economic data dampened bets for a hike. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7126(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7204(May 29th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7070 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 07034(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped on Tuesday as growing expectations of another Bank of Japan rate hike supported the yen. The BoJ has maintained a negative interest rate policy since 2016, but pressure has been building for a change. Inflation continues to exceed the central bank’s 2% goal, supporting the case for further policy normalization. According to market data, the probability of a BoJ rate hike at its next policy meeting has risen to over 70%, up from roughly 50% a week earlier. The Japanese yen also strengthened 0.35% to 159.04 per dollar, pulling away from the closely watched 160 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 160.20 (SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.67(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.09(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 156.63 (23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares hovered near a two-week low on Wednesday as elevated oil prices, driven by Middle East tensions, supported energy stocks but fueled concerns over inflation and economic growth.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.25 13percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.10 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.12percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold surged 3% to its highest level in more than two and a half months on Wednesday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and lower bond yields that boosted the appeal of non-yielding bullion ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s July 28-29 meeting minutes.
Spot gold was up 2.7% to $4,448.97 per ounce by 9:37 a.m. EDT (1337 GMT) after touching its highest level since June 5 at $4,466.01 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures increased nearly 2% to $4,506.70.
Oil prices pared gains but remained near a three-week high reached earlier on Wednesday, as uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing supply disruptions continued to support crude prices.
Brent crude futures were up 18 cents, or 0.2%, at $91.20 by 1302 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were 16 cents, or 0.19% higher at $85.10 a barrel.
