Market Roundup
•UK 3-Year Treasury Gilt Auction 4.082%,4.068% previous
•German 10-Years Bund Auction 2.310%,2.080% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:45 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision 3.75% forecast,4.25% previous
•14:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Sep) -2.5% previous
•14:00 USD Existing Home Sales (Sep) 3.88M forecast, 3.86M previous
•14:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Oct) -12.0 forecast, -12.9 previous
•14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories: 0.800M forecast, -2.191M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 14:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•14:00 EUR ECB's Lane Speaks
•13:00 UK BoE Breeden Speaks
•13:00 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
•13:45 Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report
•13:45 Canada BoC Rate Statement
•14:30 Canada BOC Press Conference
•16:00 US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro hit three month low on Wednesday as dollar continued to climb as expectations grew that the Federal Reserve will moderate its interest rate cut path. The euro is at its lowest since early August and was last down 0.1% at $1.0789, largely a victim of the dollar's strength, but also not helped by weak economic data, and markets shifting to expect more rate cuts from the European Central Bank in the coming months. ECB policymakers have begun to debate whether interest rates need to be lowered enough to start stimulating the economy, ending years of economic restriction report showed on Wednesday, citing conversations this week with half a dozen sources. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0816(SMA5 ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0847(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0762(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0700(Psychological level).
GBP/USD The pound dipped a touch on the dollar as traders awaited remarks by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey that could affect expectations of the central bank's rate cut path. Sterling’s weakness has largely been a result of a stronger dollar, as traders repositioned for a more moderate pace of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve than they had seen a few months ago, and took into account the potential for former President Donald Trump to win the U.S. election in November. Sterling was last down 0.14% at $1.2967, just above the previous day's intraday low of $1.2945, its lowest since Aug. 19. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3054(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3123(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2967(Oct 22nd low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2928 (Lower BB).
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar slipped on Wednesday as dollar held firm on shifting expectations of the Federal Reserve being less aggressive in its easing.A series of strong economic reports from the U.S. has diminished expectations for aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, leading to a rise in the value of the dollar. At GMT 12:19, the Kiwi dollar dipped 0.64% to $0.6006, following a 0.2% rebound overnight that helped it recover from a two-month low of $0.6020. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6116(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6161 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 0.5950(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar climbed above 152 on Wednesday as yen for the first time since late July on Wednesday and kept the euro pinned at a two month low, supported by expectations the Fed won't rush to cut rates and investors bracing for a potential Trump election victory. The dollar was last up 0.9% on the yen at 152.48, its highest since July 31, the day the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to their highest in 2007, and, incidentally, gave global markets a sharp jolt. The move in USDJPY pair recent weeks has been largely led by the dollar side of the pair, but on Wednesday those moves were spilling over into other pairs, with the euro up 0.8% on the yen at 164.49, and the pound up 0.9% at 152.45 yen, both also their highest since July 31. Immediate resistance can be seen at 152.49 (23.6 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 150.55(5SMA), a break below could take the pair towards 150.82(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares dipped on Wednesday amid volatile trading, primarily due to losses in the mining sector while sentiment was further dampened by disappointing earnings reports from major companies, including Deutsche Bank and beauty giant L'Oréal.
At (GMT 12:20),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.55 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.17 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.55 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hit record highs on Wednesday, defying the dollar's rise, which kept pressure on the yen and the euro, while global stocks edged lower on investors' reluctance to place major bets ahead of the U.S. election in less than two weeks.
Oil prices fell on Wednesday after industry data showed U.S. crude inventories swelled more than expected, though futures were still up about 2% this week as traders factored in continuing conflict in the Middle East.
Brent crude futures dropped $1.40, or 1.8%, to $74.64 a barrel by 1107 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also shed $1.40, or 2%, to $70.34
