Market Roundup
•UK Business Investment (QoQ) (Q4) -1.9%, -3.2%forecast, 2.2% previous
•UK Business Investment (YoY) (Q4) 1.8%, -0.7% forecast, 5.6% previous
•UK Business Investment (QoQ) (Q4) -1.9%, -3.2% forecast, 2.2% previous
•UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) 2.2%, 0.4% forecast, 0.8% previous
•UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) 1.0%, -0.5% forecast, 1.6% previous
•UK Current Account (Q4) -21.0B, -16.7B forecast, -12.5B previous
•UK GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
•UK GDP (YoY) (Q4) 1.5%, 1.4% forecast, 0.9% previous
•UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) 1.0%, -0.3% forecast, 1.4% previous
•UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) 2.2%, 0.5% forecast, 0.6% previous
•UK Trade Balance (Jan) -17.85B, -16.80B forecast, -19.72B previous
•French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Feb) -0.1%, 0.3% forecast, -0.6% previous
•French CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
•French CPI (YoY) (Mar) 0.8%, 0.8% forecast, 0.8% previous
•French HICP (MoM) (Mar) 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
•French HICP (YoY) (Mar) 0.9%, 1.1% forecast, 0.9% previous
•French PPI (MoM) (Feb) -0.5%, 0.8% previous
•EU Core CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.0%, 2.2% forecast
•Spanish CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.3%, 2.6% forecast, 3.0% previous
•German Unemployment Change (Mar) 26K, 10K forecast, 9K previous
•German Unemployment Rate (Mar) 6.3%, 6.2% forecast, 6.2% previous
•German Unemployment (Mar) 2.922M, 2.886M previous
•German Unemployment n.s.a. (Mar) 2.967M, 2.989M previous
•Italian Business Confidence (Mar) 86.0, 87.5 forecast, 86.9 previous
•EU Business and Consumer Survey (Mar) 95.2, 97.0 forecast, 96.3 previous
•EU Business Climate (Mar) -0.73, -0.75 previous
•EU Consumer Confidence (Mar) -14.5, -14.5 forecast, -14.5 previous
•EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (Mar) 24.4, 21.4 previous
•EU Selling Price Expectations (Mar) 11.4, 10.2 previous
•EU Services Sentiment (Mar) 2.4, 6.8 forecast, 5.1 previous
•EU Industrial Sentiment (Mar) -10.6, -10.5 forecast, -11.0 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Feb) 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•12:30 US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Feb) 2.7% forecast, 2.6% previous
•12:30 US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Feb) 2.5% forecast, 2.5% previous
•12:30 US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Feb) 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•12:30 US Personal Income (MoM) (Feb) 0.4% forecast, 0.9% previous
•12:30 US Personal Spending (MoM) (Feb) 0.5% forecast, -0.2% previous
•12:30 US Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Feb) -0.5% previous
•12:30 Canada GDP (MoM) (Jan) 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•12:30 Canada GDP (MoM) (Jan) 0.2% previous
•13:00 US Dallas Fed PCE (Feb) 2.50% previous
•14:00 US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Mar) 4.9% forecast, 4.3% previous
•14:00 US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Mar) 3.9% forecast, 3.5% previous
•14:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Mar) 54.2 forecasts, 64.0 previous
•14:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar) 57.9 forecasts, 64.7 previous
•14:00 US Michigan Current Conditions (Mar) 63.5 forecasts, 65.7 previous
•15:00 Canada Budget Balance (Jan) 1.00B previous
•15:00 Canada Budget Balance (YoY) (Jan) -21.72B previous
•17:00 US U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 486 previous
•17:00 US U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 593 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 16:15 US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro fell slightly on Friday after European inflation data came in lower than expected and as a U.S. tariff deadline loomed. Data showed inflation in France and Spain was cooler than analysts had anticipated in March, prompting traders to increase their bets on further European Central Bank rate cuts. Separate figures revealed that French consumer spending declined, and Germany's unemployment rate edged higher. Investors were focused on the looming April 2 date, when U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated he will announce reciprocal tariffs on America's major trading partners. On the data front, Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming release of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index inflation data, as it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure for tracking inflation trends. The euro was last down 0.22% at $1.0778. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0840(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0958(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0741(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0650(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged lower on Friday as a stronger dollar offset upbeat UK economic data. British retail sales unexpectedly rose in February, growing 1.0% from January, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics. A poll of economists had forecasted a monthly fall of 0.4% in sales volumes. This marked the second consecutive monthly increase in retail sales, following a dismal reading in December, a key month for holiday shopping. A separate data release on Friday showed the UK economy expanded by 0.1% in the fourth quarter. On an annual basis, growth increased by 1.5%, compared to forecasts of a 1.4% rise. Sterling rose to a session high of $1.297 after the data, before retreating to $1.295, roughly flat on the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3012(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3072(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2902(March 17th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2873(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Friday as traders reduced risk exposure ahead of the month-end and in anticipation of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy meeting. This risk aversion comes as market participants adjust their positions, bracing for potential policy updates or signals from the RBA. The RBA is set to announce its rate decision on Tuesday, with no change to the official cash rate (OCR) expected. Meanwhile, investors are closely watching the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index later on Friday, with a 0.3% month-on-month increase expected, as it is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. At GMT 12:17, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.17% to $0.6294. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6313(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6358(March 20th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6258(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6237(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against the yen on Friday as the yen gained strength following the release of Tokyo's consumer price index. Core consumer inflation in Tokyo remained above the Bank of Japan's target and accelerated in March, driven by steady increases in food prices, according to data released on Friday. The Tokyo consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food, rose by 2.4% year-on-year in March, surpassing the market forecast of 2.2% and up from a 2.2% rise in February. This keeps market expectations for a near-term interest rate hike alive. The yen was slightly stronger at 150.78 per dollar in early trading, on course for a nearly 4% gain against the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 151.12(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.52(Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.50.00(Psychological level) a break below could take the pair towards 149.81(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Euro zone shares dipped on Friday, marking the end of a week weighed down by concerns over the global economic fallout from an intensifying trade war initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump.
At GMT (12:26) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.17 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.46 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.55 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices extended their gains on Friday, reaching a record peak as fears of an escalating trade war intensified following U.S. President Trump's latest tariffs.
Spot gold climbed 0.6% to $3,075.77 an ounce as of 1108 GMT after hitting an all-time high of $3,086.21 earlier. Prices were headed for a fourth straight week of gains.
Oil prices were on track for a third consecutive weekly gain on Friday as the U.S. intensified its pressure on Venezuela and Iran, reducing global supply.
Brent crude futures were up 8 cents, 0.1%, at $74.11 a barrel at 0949 GMT, marking the eighth straight days of gains, its longest such streak since May 2022.
