Oil Prices Rise Over 1% on Positive U.S. Economic Data and Geopolitical Tensions 
Market Roundup
• UK May Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) 19K,18K forecast,-140K previous
• UK May Average Earnings Index +Bonus 5.7%,5.7% forecast,5.9% previous
• UK May Unemployment Rate 4.4%,4.4% forecast,4.4% previous
• UK May Average Earnings ex Bonus 5.7%,5.7% forecast,6.0% previous
• UK Jun Claimant Count Change 32.3K, 23.4K forecast,51.9K previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:15 ECB Jul Interest Rate Decision 4.25% forecast, 4.25% previous
•12:30 US Jul Philly Fed Business Conditions 13.8 previous
•12:30 US Jul Philly Fed Employment -2.5 previous
•12:30 US Jul Philly Fed Prices Paid 22.50 previous
•12:30 US Jul Philly Fed New Orders -2.2 previous
•12:30 US Jul Philly Fed CAPEX Index 12.10 previous
•12:30 US Jul Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 2.7 forecast,1.3 previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 229K forecast,222K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,860K forecast,1,852K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 233.50K previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•12:15 ECB Monetary Policy Statement
•12:45 ECB Press Conference
•14:15 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•22:05 US FOMC Member Daly Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased on Thursday as investors focused on European Central Bank's interest rate decision, due later in the day. ECB's interest rate decision, due at 1215 GMT, where the central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged while signalling that its next move is still set to be a cut, even if this guidance is likely to be vague and carry caveats. The single European currency held near four-month highs ahead of the ECB's decision, which is all but certain to result in no change to monetary policy, leaving traders to focus on what the chances of a September rate cut might be.The euro was roughly steady at $1.09325. Markets currently show traders believe euro zone rates will fall at least once more this year, with a reasonable chance of another drop on top of that. . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0942(23.6%fib).), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0893(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0868(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped on Thursday, but still headed for a fourth weekly gain versus the dollar, after another round of UK data fed into the view that the Bank of England may not have as much scope to cut rates at its August meeting. Official UK data showed average weekly earnings excluding bonuses - a key gauge of inflation pressure for the BoE - grew by 5.7% in the three months to the end of May compared with a year earlier, in line with median forecasts. Sterling was last 0.1% lower at $1.2995, having traded at a session high of $1.30125 right before the wage growth numbers. Futures markets are attaching a 40% chance of a quarter-point cut to 5.0% when the BoE meets on Aug. 1, down from 50% at the start of the week and from 60% at the start of July. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3048(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3081(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2981(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2937(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar edged higher against the Swiss franc on Thursday but gains were limited dollar was on defensive on rising anticipation of a U.S. interest rate cut in September . Fed Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams both noted the shortening horizon toward looser monetary policy. Separately, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said he is "very encouraged" on broadening declines in inflation.Markets expect a 25-basis-point reduction at the Federal Reserve's September meeting, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. U.S. economic activity expanded at a slight to modest pace from late May through early July with firms expecting slower growth ahead. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8884(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8945(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8836(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8811(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against Japanese on Thursday as traders suspected Japanese authorities intervened to prop up the battered currency from multi-decade lows. Stirring up speculation of an official push. The yen strengthened by as much as 0.53% overnight, as the dollar extended a protracted slide that has put it on track for its biggest two-week decline versus the Japanese currency this year, down 2.8% in that time. The dollar was last steady at 156.245, roughly 5 yen below where it was just over a week ago. Bank of Japan money market data suggested authorities may have bought nearly 6 trillion yen ($38 billion) last week, and traders said this week's moves bore the hallmarks of further intervention, or at least of markets easily spooked by that prospect. Strong resistance can be seen at 157.43(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.66(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.94 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 155.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Thursday as gains in energy overshadowed declines in technology stocks, although major focus was on the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, due later in the day.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up by 0.66 percent, Germany's Dax was last up by 0.03 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.48 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Thursday, hovering near a record high scaled in the previous session, as rising anticipation of a U.S. interest rate cut in September lifted demand for non-yielding bullion.
Spot gold was up 0.5% at $2,470.62 per ounce, as of 0641 GMT. Prices hit an all-time high of $2,483.60 on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures also climbed 0.5% to $2,473.10.
Oil prices extended gains on Thursday, buoyed by a bigger than expected decline in crude stocks in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer.
Brent futures rose 41 cents, or 0.5%, to $85.49 a barrel by 0819 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 69 cents, or 0.8%, at $83.54, with both having registered gains in the previous session.
