Market Roundup
•French Car Registration (MoM) (Oct) -2.5%, 61.7% previous
• French Car Registration (YoY) (Oct): -11.1%, -11.1% previous
•UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (Oct): 17.35B, 14.10B forecast, 16.14B previous
•UK Public Sector Net Cash Requirement (Oct): 11.133B, -20.446B previous
•Sweden Capacity Utilization (QoQ) (Q3): -0.9%, -0.3% previous
•French Business Survey (Nov): 97, 95 forecast, 93 previous
•Swiss M3 Money Supply (Oct): 1,147,624.0B, 1,148,212.0B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,873K previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 220K forecast, 217K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 221.00K previous
•13:30 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov) 6.3 forecast, 10.3 previous
•13:30 US Philly Fed Business Conditions (Nov) 36.7 previous
•13:30 US Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Nov) 23.50 previous
•13:30 US Philly Fed Employment (Nov) -2.2 previous
•13:30 US Philly Fed New Orders (Nov) 14.2 previous
•13:30 US Philly Fed Prices Paid (Nov) 29.70 previous
•13:30 Canada IPPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.3% -0.6% previous
•13:30 Canada IPPI (YoY) (Oct) -0.9% previous
•13:30 Canada RMPI (MoM) (Oct) -1.5% forecast, -3.1% previous
•13:30 Canada RMPI (YoY) (Oct) -8.8% previous
•15:00 US Existing Home Sales (Oct) 3.94M forecast, 3.84M previous
•15:00 US Leading Index (MoM) (Oct) -0.3% forecast, -0.5% previous
•15:00 EU Consumer Confidence (Nov) -12.0 forecast, -12.5 previous
•16:00 USD KC Fed Composite Index (Nov) -4 previous
•16:00 USD KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov) 0 previous
•16:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction 4.510% previous
•16:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction 4.460% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•15:30 ECB's Elderson Speaks
•15:30 ECB's Lane Speaks
•17:25 US Fed Goolsbee Speaks
•14:00 BoE MPC Member Mann
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD fell against dollar on Thursday, following reports that Russia had, for the first time, fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) during its attack on Ukraine. This development heightened geopolitical tensions, which contributed to risk aversion in the markets. The missile launch raised concerns about the escalating conflict and its potential global implications, leading to a flight to safety, which put downward pressure on the euro against the U.S. dollar. At the same time, traders are sizing up what Trump's campaign pledges of tariffs mean for the rest of the world, with Europe and China both likely in the firing line. The euro was down another 0.1% at $1.0522. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0611(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0671(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0538`(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0521(Lower BB)
GBP/USD: Sterling slightly decline on Thursday, as investors closely monitored the potential pick for President-elect Donald Trump's Treasury Secretary, with uncertainty around how this could influence his policies on growth, trade, and taxes. The pound had briefly gained the day prior, bolstered by data showing that UK consumer inflation rose unexpectedly in October. This development reinforced market expectations that the Bank of England would be among the slowest of major central banks to reduce rates significantly in the coming year. Despite this, sterling has dropped nearly 2% against the dollar this month and has now turned negative for the year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2696(SMA 5), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2723(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2592 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2515(My 14th low)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Thursday, finding support on bargain-hunting after its sharp drop on Wednesday. Traders seemed to seize the opportunity to buy the currency at lower levels, taking advantage of the recent decline. Despite broader market challenges, including global uncertainty and risk aversion, the Aussie benefited from a short-term rebound as investors looked for value in the currency. This uptick suggests that some market participants remain confident in the Australian economy's resilience, even amidst the volatility. At GMT 07:02, The Aussie was trading at 0.6529 further away from the recent three-month low of $0.6443. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6555(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6564(SMA 21).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6481(Nov 19th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6389(April 16th low).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against the yen as concerns over escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine boosted demand for yen. Ukraine fired a volley of British Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russia on Wednesday, the latest new Western weapon it has been permitted to use on Russian targets, a day after it fired U.S. ATACMS missiles. With geopolitical tensions running high, the Japanese yen has outperformed. The dollar was last down 0.6% on the day at 154.52 yen. The yen has lost around 10% in value in the last couple of months, as traders have bet heavily in favour of the dollar, given the chances that U.S. rates will remain well above Japanese ones for some time. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday the central bank would seriously take into account foreign exchange rate moves in compiling its economic and price forecasts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.80(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.71 (Nov 15th high). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.30(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 153.63(21SMA).
Equities Recap
Automobile stocks led losses in Europe on Thursday, with geopolitical tensions weighing on overall market sentiment and keeping some safe-haven bids afloat, while chip stocks took a hit after sector bellwether Nvidia's disappointing forecast.
At (GMT 12:47)UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.40 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.48 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.13 percent.
Commodities Recap
Spot gold price rose for the fourth consecutive day on Thursday, with safe-haven demand for the precious metal supported by global stocks under pressure after AI bellwether Nvidia's revenue growth forecast failed to excite investors. Spot gold was up 0.7% at $2,669.30 per ounce by 1040 GMT.
Oil prices climbed more than 2% on Thursday as Russia and Ukraine launched missiles at each other, overshadowing the impact of a bigger-than-expected increase in U.S. crude inventories.
Brent crude futures rose $1.48, or 2.03%, to $74.29 by 1158 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $1.53, or 2.23%, to $70.28.
