Market Roundup
•Spanish Jan PPI (YoY) -3.8%, -6.3% previous
•UK Feb CBI Distributive Trades Survey -7,-33 forecast,-50 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:00 US Building Permits 1.470M forecast,1.493M previous
•13:00 US Building Permits (MoM) -1.5% forecast,1.8% previous
•13:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) 0.3% previous
•13:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) -0.7% previous
•13:30 Canada Corporate Profits (QoQ) 4.7% previous
•13:55 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.477% previous
•13:55 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.838% previous
•13:55 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.746% previous
•15:00 US Jan New Home Sales 680K forecast,664K previous
•15:00 US Jan New Home Sales (MoM) 8.0% previous
•15:30 US Feb Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index -27.4 previous
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.100% previous
•16:30 US 2-Year Note Auction 4.365% previous
•18:00 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.230% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•13:00 German Buba Mauderer Speaks
•13:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
•16:00 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Monday as investors awaited inflation data from the United States and euro zone that could further refine interest rate expectations. ECB officials have reiterated their focus on inflation in the euro zone, particularly with regards to the service sector and wage growth.ECB President Christine Lagarde on Friday said wage growth had moderated, but it was too early to assume inflation had been conquered. The euro was last up 0.25% at $1.0854, having gained against the dollar in eight out of the last nine trading sessions. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0869(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0906 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0808(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0742 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose against dollar on Monday as last week’s solid British economic data continued to support sterling. The pound secured its biggest one-week gain versus the dollar this year last week, boosted by upbeat business activity surveys The pound was set for a fifth daily rise against the dollar, its longest stretch of gains since the end of December. The futures market shows traders widely expect the Bank of England to cut rates in August, with a slim chance of a cut in June. Investors are banking on the BoE cutting rates by around 60 basis points to just below 4.60% by December, less than half of the 120 bps in cuts that were priced in at the start of this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2703(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2729(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2668(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2638(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against the Swiss franc on Monday as investors awaited array of data this week that will help refine expectations for future rate moves by central banks. The U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation - is due on Thursday, where expectations are for a 0.4% increase on a monthly basis. Inflation figures in the euro zone, Japan and Australia also land this week, alongside a rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and China PMI surveys. The dollar index was a touch lower at 103.89. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8820(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8863(Feb 15th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8739(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8687(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against yen on Monday as investors anticipated a crucial inflation report which is likely to offer a fresh perspective on the timing of potential interest rate cut. The main event for investors this week will be Thursday's U.S. core PCE. Hotter readings of producer and consumer inflation have increased the likelihood that this measure might top expectations as well, which could further push back expectations for when the Fed might deliver its first cut. Japan's nationwide consumer prices are due on Tuesday and are forecast to show core inflation slowed to an annual rate of 1.8% in January, the lowest since March 2022.That would complicate the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) plans to end negative interest rates in coming months, keeping the yen under pressure in the near term. Strong resistance can be seen at 151.00(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.69(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.79(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 149.00(Psychological level )
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Monday, led by a decline in commodity-linked stocks, while investors awaited key inflation data expected this week from the euro zone and the United States.
At (GMT 12:54 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.28 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.01 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.37 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold slipped on Monday as markets pared back expectations of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle and cautiously awaited a key inflation reading this week, which is likely to provide an updated view on the timing of interest rate cuts.
Spot gold edged down 0.1% to $2,033.89 per ounce as of 1005 GMT, after rising to its highest since Feb. 7 on Friday. U.S. gold futures dropped 0.3% to $2,043.30 per ounce.
Oil prices fell on Monday, extending losses on market views that higher than expected inflation could delay cuts to high interest rates that have been capping growth in global fuel demand.
Brent crude futures fell 46 cents, or 0.6%, to $81.16 a barrel by 1210 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) were down 40 cents, or 0.5%, at $76.09.
