Market Roundup
• German Mar GfK Consumer Climate -29.0,-29.0 forecast,-29.7 previous
• Sweden Jan Household Lending Growth (YoY) 0.3% ,0.4% previous
•French Feb Consumer Confidence 89,92 forecast,91 previous
•EU Jan Loans to Non Financial Corporations 0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
•EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) 0.3%,0.4% forecast,0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Jan Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.6% previous
•13:30 US Jan Durable Goods Orders (MoM) -4.9% forecast,0.0% previous
•13:30 US Jan Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) 0.1% forecast,0.3% previous
•13:30 US Jan Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 0.5% previous
•13:55 US Redbook (YoY) 3.0% previous
•14:00 US Dec House Price Index 417.4 previous
•14:00 US Dec House Price Index (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Releases(GMT)
•13:00 ECB's Elderson Speaks
•13:40 UK MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Tuesday as investors and central bankers braced for inflation data this week that could alter the course for interest rates . German states, France and Spain, will release inflation data on Thursday ahead of the euro area's figures due on Friday.ECB officials sounded more cautious about a quick easing of monetary policy, with President Christine Lagarde saying that wage growth remains robust, while the ECB dove Yannis Stournaras ruled out a rate cut before June. The euro was up 0.1% versus the greenback at 1.0859. It has steadily risen since mid-February when it hit 1.0695, its lowest since Nov. 14. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0866(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0906 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0808(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0742 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling was little changed against dollar on Tuesday as investors awaited new catalyst to give the currency a bit of fresh pep. The pound has held up better than all other major currencies against the dollar in 2024, down around 0.2% so far this year at about $1.269. And while it has had a decent rally from early February's two-month lows, overall, it has been broadly stuck in a range of around $1.251 to $1.278 since the third week in December. The Bank of England is one thing that could give the pound a nudge and while it is still expected to cut interest rates later this year, traders think it will cut by less, and far later, than they thought just three weeks ago. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2708(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2729(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2664(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2629(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against the Swiss franc on Tuesday ahead of key data that could provide further clues on the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy path. Markets have recently pulled back expectations on the timing and size of Fed rate cuts this year, as the U.S. economy remains strong and inflation pressures failed to subside significantly. The release of the PCE deflator on Thursday is one of the key highlights in the U.S. calendar this week and could suggest less aggressive bets on Fed easing. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against a basket of peers, including the yen, euro and sterling, was down 0.05% at 103.71. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8846(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8900(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8756(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8693(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against yen on Tuesday after data confirmed Japan’s inflation was above the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) target. Japan’s core consumer inflation exceeded forecasts, keeping alive some expectations that the BOJ might end negative interest rates by April. The 2.0% gain in the core consumer prices index (CPI) was slower than the 2.3% increase in December, internal affairs and communications ministry data showed on Tuesday, underscoring views waning cost-push inflation from commodity imports could ease the pain of higher living costs. The yen rose 0.35% to 150.18 . It hit in mid-February 150.88, its lowest level since Nov. 16. Strong resistance can be seen at 151.00(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.69(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.79(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 149.00(Psychological level )
Equities Recap
European shares edged slightly higher on Tuesday, led by gains in basic resources stocks and a string of upbeat earnings, while investors and central bankers braced for inflation data this week that could alter the course for interest rates.
At (GMT 12:49 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.06 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.70 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.24 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices inched up on Tuesday, buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar and bond yields, ahead of a key inflation report and comments from Federal Reserve officials for further clues on when interest rate cuts will commence.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $2,035.23 per ounce as of 1022 GMT, hovering near its highest since Feb. 7 hit on Friday. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,044.80 per ounce.
Oil prices were largely stable on Tuesday, as investors weighed up signals of a Gaza ceasefire against the reality on the ground in the Middle East.
Brent crude futures fell 10 cents, or 0.12%, to $82.43 a barrel by 0923 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) were down 7 cents, or 0.09%, to $77.51 a barrel.
