Market Roundup
•UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 1.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr) 5.3%, 4.4% forecast, 2.6% previous
•UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr) 5.0%, 4.5% forecast, 1.9% previous
•UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 1.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
•German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.4%, 0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
• German GDP (YoY) (Q1) 0.0%, -0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Building Permits (Apr) 1.412M forecast, 1.467M previous
•12:30 US Building Permits (MoM) (Apr) -4.7% forecast, 0.5% previous
•12:30 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) -0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous
•12:30 Canada Corporate Profits (QoQ) -2.5% previous
•12:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.6% forecast, -0.4% previous
•12:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) -0.4% previous
•14:00 US New Home Sales (Apr) 694K forecast,724K previous
•14:00 US New Home Sales (MoM) (Apr) 7.4% previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 473 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 576 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•13:35 US Fed Schmid Speaks
•16:00 US Fed Governor Cook Speaks
•16:00 EU ECB's Schnabel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro gained ground on Friday as mounting concerns over the United States' fiscal health led investors to move away from the dollar. The shift in sentiment followed Moody's recent downgrade of U.S. debt, which brought renewed attention to the country’s $36 trillion debt burden. Adding to these concerns is President Donald Trump's proposed tax bill, which analysts warn could significantly increase the national debt. Nicknamed a "big, beautiful bill" by Trump, the legislation narrowly passed the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and is now headed to the Senate, where weeks of debate are expected. The uncertainty surrounding the bill’s passage and its potential impact on fiscal stability continues to weigh on market confidence. The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1338 on Friday and is set for a 1% gain for the week Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1383(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1450(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1268(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1163(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound rose on Friday as unexpectedly robust UK retail sales data and to ongoing investor unease around dollar boosted sterling . British retail sales surged in April, helped by sunny weather, offering a rare positive sign amid a sluggish economic outlook. According to the Office for National Statistics, retail volumes rose by a stronger-than-expected 1.2% month-on-month, following a revised 0.1% increase in March. Economists had forecast a modest 0.2% rise, but the actual increase marked the fourth consecutive monthly gain in retail sales a streak not seen since 2020, when consumer spending bounced back following the initial COVID-19 lockdown. Data also showed that households grew more optimistic in May, suggesting consumers could remain a key support for the UK economy. Sterling has gained 1.5% this week and on Friday hit a high of $1.3468, the most since February 24, 2022.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3522(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3582(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3390(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3315(April 30th low).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened on Friday as the U.S. dollar weakened amid renewed concerns over America's fiscal outlook. The move followed the Republican-controlled House passing a sweeping tax and spending bill that supports former President Trump’s agenda while significantly increasing the national debt. Sentiment was further rattled by Moody’s recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, which disrupted the brief calm after last month’s tariff-driven volatility. Looking ahead, markets are focused on Australia’s monthly inflation report due Wednesday and retail sales data on Friday, both critical after the Reserve Bank of Australia hinted at possible rate cuts. A July rate cut is currently priced in with a 60% probability, with expectations for a total easing of 65 basis points by year-end. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6487(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6520(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6414(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6368(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar declined against the Japanese yen on Friday following data that showed Japan’s core inflation reached its fastest annual rate in over two years, boosting expectations for another interest rate hike by year-end. In April, Japan’s core consumer price index (CPI)—which excludes fresh food but includes energy costs increased by 3.5% year-over-year, surpassing the anticipated 3.4% and rising from 3.2% in March. This inflation surge highlights the Bank of Japan’s difficult balancing act as it contends with ongoing food-driven inflation amid economic challenges stemming from U.S. tariffs and global uncertainties. The data highlights the dilemma confronting the Bank of Japan, which must balance ongoing price pressures from persistent food inflation with economic challenges stemming from President Trump's tariffs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.33 (Daily high)an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.60(38.2%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142.38(23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.21(Lower BB)
Equities Recap
European stocks dipped on Friday as the U.S. tax-cut bill sparked concerns over global market volatility.
At GMT (12:10) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 1.23percent, Germany's Dax was down by 2.73 percent, France’s CAC was down by 2.88 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose 1% on Friday, heading for their best weekly gain in six weeks, supported by a weaker dollar and growing concerns over the United States’ deteriorating fiscal outlook, which drove investors toward the safe-haven metal.
Spot gold was up 1% at $3,325.47 an ounce as of 1119 GMT. Bullion has risen 4% this week, its highest since April 7.
Oil prices fell for the fourth straight session on Friday and were poised for their first weekly loss in three weeks, pressured by growing expectations of a significant OPEC+ output increase in July.
Brent futures fell 22 cents, or 0.3%, to $64.22 a barrel by 0919 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $60.99.
