Market Roundup
• German PPI (MoM) (Sep) -0.5%,-0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
• German PPI (YoY) (Sep) -1.4% -0.8% previous
• Swiss M3 Money Supply (Sep) 1,150.3B ,1,145.3B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Eeleases(GMT)
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.730%
•French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.138%
•French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.897%
•Spanish Consumer Confidence (Sep) 89.4 previous
•US Leading Index (MoM) (Sep) -0.3% forecast, -0.2% previous
•US 3-Month Bill Auction 4.515% previous
•US 6-Month Bill Auction 4.270% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased slightly on Monday as dollar gained ahead of U.S. presidential election in two weeks. Election polls that show rising odds of former President Donald Trump winning the Nov. 5 election are boosting the dollar, since his proposed tariff and tax policies are seen as likely to keep U.S. interest rates high and undermine currencies of trading partners.The Republican candidate's tariff, tax and immigration policies are seen as inflationary, and thus negative for bonds and positive for the dollar. On the data front, Euro zone flash consumer confidence and PMIs and the German Ifo business climate survey are the only significant data this week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0847(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0866(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0820(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0800(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: The pound fell on Monday as investors focused on the relative strength of the U.S. economy, pushing up the dollar. Last week, data showed retail sales grew more than anticipated in September and jobless claims fell the previous week, helping moderate investors' bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts and pushing up Treasury yields.
By contrast, figures released last Wednesday showed British inflation fell more than expected in September to 1.7%, below the Bank of England's 2% target, causing traders to increase their bets on deeper rate cuts in the UK. This week, investors will be focused on comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, starting with a speech tomorrow, and purchasing managers' index data on the private sector's performance in October. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3054(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3123(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2981(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2928 (Lower BB).
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar ease Monday as stronger dollar and absence of major economic data from New Zealand kept bearish pressure on kiwi dollar. There is a real chance the Reserve Bank of New Zealand could cut by 75 basis points at its next meeting in November, with swaps pricing in a 20% probability of such a move.Traders are awaiting a speech from the RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr on Thursday morning to see if there is any guidance about the size of the next cut. At (GMT 12:25) Kiwi dollar was trading at down 0.14% at $0.6061 against the U.S. dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6116(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6161 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6059 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6000(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Monday as rising expectations of Republican candidate Donald Trump winning the U.S. election next month strengthened the dollar.U.S. data schedule is led by S&P Global flash PMIs, existing and new home sales, durable goods, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, weekly jobless claims and University of Michigan sentiment. Several Fed officials will voice their opinions on the outlook for the economy and interest rates. Japan has a low-key week for event risk, with flash PMIs, Tokyo October CPI and services PPI the main releases. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.30 (23.6 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 149.45(Oct 17th low), a break below could take the pair towards 148.67(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European slipped on Monday, after two back-to-back weekly gains, ahead of a series of marquee corporate earnings, although stabilising oil prices buoyed the energy sector.
At (GMT 12:15 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.30 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.72 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.74 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rallied for a fifth straight day on Monday, hitting a record high on uncertainties around the U.S. election, ongoing Middle East tensions, and expectations of central banks' interest rate cuts, while silver hit a near 12-year peak.
Spot gold gained 0.6% to $2,735.38 per ounce, as of 1112 GMT, after hitting an all-time high of $2,736.86 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures were 0.7% higher at $2,750.00.
Oil prices rose on Monday, recouping some of last week's more than 7% decline on worries about demand in China, the world's top oil importer, and easing concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East.
Brent crude futures were up $1.05, or 1.4%, at $74.11 a barrel at 1233 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were $1.21, or 1.8%, higher at $70.43 a barrel.
