Market Roundup
•UK BoE Consumer Credit (Sep) 1.231B, 1.400B forecast, 1.352B previous
• UK Mortgage Approvals (Sep) 65.65K, 65.00K forecast, 64.96K previous
• UK Mortgage Lending (Sep) 2.54B, 2.85B previous
• UK Net Lending to Individuals (Sep): 3.800B ,4.100B forecast 4.156B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 12:30 US Goods Trade Balance (Sep) -95.90B forecast, -94.22B previous
• 12:30 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Sep) 0.5% previous
• 12:30 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Sep) 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
•12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Sep) -0.6% previous
•13:00 US House Price Index (YoY) (Aug) 4.5% previous
•13:00 US House Price Index (MoM) (Aug) 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
• 13:00 US House Price Index Aug 425.2 previous
• 13:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (Aug) 0.3% previous
• 13:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Aug) 0.0% previous
• 13:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Aug) 4.9% forecast, 5.9% previous
•14:00 US CB Consumer Confidence (Oct) 99.5 forecast, 98.7 previous
•14:00 US JOLTS Job Openings (Sep) 7.980M forecast, 8.040M previous
•14:30 US Texas Services Sector Outlook (Oct) -2.6 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•19:30 Canada BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rogers Speaks
•19:30 Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased on Tuesday as investors awaited the JOLTS job openings report due ahead of highly anticipated monthly non-farm payrolls data on Friday. Recent robust U.S. economic data, including evidence of a resilient job market, have seen bets pared back for easing this year by the Federal Reserve, boosting the dollar. Data this week includes U.S. job openings at 1400 GMT, ADP employment on Wednesday, U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures on Thursday, and payrolls report on Friday.Then comes Nov. 5, when Americans go to polls to elect a new president. Markets are pricing in about 99% chance of a 25 basis points rate cut by the Fed, according to CME's FedWatch, opens new tab Tool. Strong resistance can be seen at 1.0816(SMA5 ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0847(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0785(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0700(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: The pound held steady on Tuesday as investors exercise caution ahead of the U.K. government's budget on Wednesday. Reeves will deliver the new Labour government's first budget in 14 years on Wednesday, two years after then-Prime Minister Liz Truss' tax-cutting plans sparked a crisis in the bond market.She plans around 40 billion pounds ($52 billion) worth of fiscal measures, according to government sources, mostly from tax increases plus cuts to some public services, to meet her pledge to cover day-to-day spending without borrowing. Markets are priced for at least one more before the end of this year, but the BoE is expected to be one of the slower major central banks when it comes to lowering borrowing costs, meaning the pound has enjoyed a degree of support this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2978(5 SMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3028(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2922(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.22900 (Psychological level).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar hit two and a half month lows against dollar on Tuesday as a strengthening dollar and declining commodity prices weighed on the Australian dollar. The relentless rise in U.S. yields boosted the greenback, prompting traders to focus on upcoming local quarterly inflation data, which could significantly influence the likelihood of a rate cut this year. Iron ore futures declined on Tuesday, giving up gains from the previous session as uncertainty about China’s fiscal stimulus plans weighed on the market. Investors awaited third-quarter Australian consumer inflation data due on Wednesday. Analysts expect headline inflation to have eased to 2.9% last quarter. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6632 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6678 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.5681 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.5551(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar hit three-month highs against the yen on Tuesday as the loss of a parliamentary majority for Japan's ruling coalition in weekend elections muddied the political and monetary picture. The election results also suggest that a new government may need to seek support from smaller opposition parties and boost spending to win public approval. Looking ahead, the BOJ will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday, with expectations that the central bank will keep rates unchanged. The yen has lost nearly 10% in value since September's 14-month high against the dollar JPYUSD=R. The dollar meanwhile, was last up 0.1% on the day at 153.415. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.87 (23.6 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.69(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 150.88(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares held slight gains on Tuesday as investors girded for three days of megacap tech earnings reports on Wall Street, while the dollar hovered near a three-month high before key labour market data.
At (GMT 12:35),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.08 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.28 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.31 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices rose on Tuesday after tumbling 6% in the previous session, as a U.S. plan to buy oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) provided some support though wider concerns about weaker future demand growth exerted pressure.
Brent crude futures climbed 74 cents, or 1.04% to $72.16 a barrel by 1026 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was 68 cents, or 1%, higher at $68.06 a barrel.
Gold prices hovered near all-time high levels on Tuesday, aided by U.S. election uncertainty and expectations of an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in November, while focus was also on a series of economic data.
Spot gold was up 0.3% to $2,750.87 per ounce as of 1114 GMT, just shy of a record high of $2,758.37 hit last Wednesday.U.S. gold futures gained 0.3% to $2,763.40.
